5 pivotal 2025 contests that could also be Trump litmus tests

Democrats will be looking to regroup while Republicans will be looking to grow their electoral advantages in 2025, when attention will turn to a handful of off-year races.

While the electoral landscape next year will be nothing like the battle for the White House and Congress that America just experienced, the offices up for grabs could give both parties a sense of where the country’s electorate is headed.

They also will almost certainly be interpreted as a litmus test of President-elect Trump’s popularity and standing.

Here are the key races to watch next year: 

New Jersey governor 

New Jersey has been seen as a heavily Democratic state, won by President Biden by 16 points in 2020.

But in 2024, Trump narrowed that gap to just 6 points, making inroads in the Democratic stronghold and giving the GOP new hope of retaking the governor’s mansion.  

The GOP has already drawn a crowded field of candidates looking to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).  

Murphy last snagged reelection by just 3 points against Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in 2021, a surprisingly tight margin after he first won the office by double digits.  

New Jersey Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka are among the Democrats who have jumped into the race.

Across the aisle, Ciattarelli is trying again in the GOP primary, alongside state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former state Sen. Ed Durr and radio host Bill Spadea.

Trump is likely to hover over the race, and will inevitably be a factor in the outcome.

If a Republican wins, it will be seen as a sign of a rightward shift sparked by Trump. But if Democrats retain the governorship, it is likely to be seen as a sign of backlash against Trump.  

Trump’s own successes in Washington, as a result, could be key in how the battle for New Jersey plays out.

Virginia governor 

In Virginia, where Trump also improved upon his 2020 showing this year, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is limited to a single term, opening up the Trump ally’s gubernatorial seat in the Old Dominion.  

When he first scored the seat in 2021, Youngkin became the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009. And though the state has gone blue in every presidential election since 2008, Vice President Harris won this year by a smaller margin than Biden enjoyed last cycle.

Youngkin has endorsed Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) to succeed him, lauding her last week as “an outspoken advocate for commonsense conservative principles and policies.”

The state’s Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), who was elected alongside Youngkin and Earle-Sears, decided against a gubernatorial bid, which could ease the path for Earle-Sears. 

On the Democratic side, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) launched her campaign late last year. Though there’s still time for other candidates to crowd into the race, a Spanberger match-up against Earle-Sears would be historic, potentially paving way for Virginia’s first female governor.  

Just as in New Jersey, both parties will be watching the results in Virginia for evidence on how Trump is being perceived.

A chaotic year in Washington for Trump would almost certainly be bad news for Republicans hoping to hold the governor’s mansion in Virginia, particularly given the importance of voters in the Washington, D.C., suburbs.

If Trump has a good first year in his second term, that could increase the GOP’s chances.

New York City mayor 

New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) is looking to defy political gravity as he vies for reelection while grappling with federal corruption charges and low approval ratings.  

Prosecutors allege the New York mayor “used his prominent positions in New York City government to obtain illegal campaign contributions and luxury travel,” noting he “sought and accepted improper valuable benefits” from at least one Turkish government official and foreign businesspeople. Adams has denied wrongdoing, and he’s set to stand trial in April.  

In the face of Adams’s legal woes, challengers are crowding into the race to represent the biggest city in the country.

The declared Democratic candidates include New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, New York State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani, state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos, former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, former Obama White House aide Michael Blake and Democratic donor Whitney Tilson.

Attorney Jim Walden, a political independent, is also running. 

New Yorkers are watching to see whether state Attorney General Letitia James (D) or former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) will also enter the ring.   

Virginia House of Delegates  

Democrats flipped control of the Virginia House of Delegates two years ago, giving them a narrow 51-49 majority. But Trump’s performance across the state and elsewhere during the 2024 election is raising questions about whether that favorable political environment for Republicans will carry into the next elections.  

Biden carried the state by 10 points in 2020, with Harris only carrying it by 5 points earlier this month.  

No matter what happens with the Virginia governor’s race and the battle for the state House, Democrats will cling to some power in the state Legislature. Democrats hold a narrow 21-19 edge in the state Senate.

But the GOP sees the race for the House of Delegates as crucial.

If they lose the gubernatorial race, they’ll need the House majority as a bulwark against a Democratic governor’s agenda.

Wisconsin Supreme Court 

Partisan control is on the line in the upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

The state’s high court currently has a 4-3 liberal tilt, but Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s retirement will bring it to an even 3-3 split.

So far, two candidates are running for Bradley’s spot — Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R).

Crawford has represented Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin in addition to the Madison teachers union in their lawsuit over Act 10, a policy passed under former Gov. Scott Walker (R) that curtailed collective bargaining rights for many public workers.  

Some of most prominent cases that Schimel, now a Waukesha County Circuit Court judge, handled while Wisconsin attorney general included appeals to the state’s legislative maps after they were struck down in 2016 as an unconstitutional gerrymander. That case was successfully appealed after making its way to the Supreme Court.  

He also appealed a case that would have brought back a 2013 law that said doctors who had admitting privileges to a hospital within 30 miles of where an abortion took place were the only ones who could provide abortion access. The case escalated all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which declined to hear the case.  

The last Wisconsin Supreme Court election in 2023, which also determined partisan control on the high court, shattered records in spending as groups threw tens of millions of dollars into advertising. Experts say they won’t be surprised if the same is true again this cycle.