A New Survey Shows the GOP Presidential Race Shifting Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses

Heading into the first contest of the 2024 GOP presidential race, Donald Trump maintains a dominant lead among Republican grassroots leaders — and Nikki Haley has eclipsed Ron DeSantis for second place.

That’s according to a new poll of GOP county chairs from across the country, with those seeking an alternative to Trump flocking to Haley rather than DeSantis in the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Among Republican chairs committed to a candidate, Trump has 37 percent, Haley has 16 percent and DeSantis has 9 percent. The candidate who chairs are most vehemently against? Chris Christie.

I began surveying county chairs nearly one year ago in an effort to track the so-called “invisible primary” for the 2024 campaign — the crucial coordination and jockeying that occurs before anyone starts voting or caucusing, but which will do much to determine the eventual winner. County chairs are figures who play a key role in shaping the race. They are highly attentive to the party’s internal dynamics and are influential in local GOP circles; they offer the kind of endorsements that candidates are eager to collect. They’re also still close to the rank-and-file grassroots, and their shifts are likely to signal where the rest of the party is going.

Their shifting sentiment over the last year, captured in an ongoing series for POLITICO Magazine, tells the story of the GOP presidential race until now, which has been far more fluid than the conventional wisdom suggests. In early 2023, it looked like Trump would have a real fight on his hands against DeSantis. But over the following months, Trump’s support grew while DeSantis’ waned. All the while, many county chairs remained undecided. But lately, they’ve been coming off the sidelines, first moving to Trump and now to Haley, though she is almost certain to fall short in catching up to the former president.

In follow-up questions to the county chairs who were surveyed, Trump supporters made clear they were resolute in their stance. Trump also appeared to be vindicated by his decision to skip the 2024 candidate debates.

“The debates highlighted the inexperience and pettiness of the also-rans,” said Lynn Bogle, chair of the Republican Committee of Patrick County, Virginia, and a Trump backer.

“I was looking for another Republican with less drama, but … unfairness, double standards and deep state [opposition] solidified my support of President Trump,” added a county Republican chair in upstate New York, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

As director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, I sent this survey to roughly 2,300 GOP chairs, in nearly every county in the country; 106 Republican chairs responded at the end of December, about the same number who responded last time in October.

The first question I asked was simply whether the county chairs had committed to supporting a candidate, and if so, whom that might be. When I launched my first survey in February, Trump was looking vulnerable and at 16 percent was roughly tied with DeSantis. Trump’s support rose to 24 percent in April and surged between August and October, jumping from 27 to 37 percent. In the most recent survey in December, his support stayed at 37 percent.

Notably, the percent of undecided chairs has continued to drop over the past two surveys, from 47 to 39 percent between August and October and then down to 32 percent in December. That’s likely an acknowledgement that the first voting will soon start. And in the most recent survey, it is Haley, rather than Trump, who has taken support from the previously undecided.

Haley’s support rose from 5 to 16 percent between October and December. DeSantis, meanwhile, stayed at 9 percent across the last two surveys.

Among those who said they were supporting Trump, they tended to indicate that they’d done so for a long time; 82 percent of Trump-backers said they’d been backing him all year. Haley backers, however, were relatively new to supporting her, with more than half saying they’d just started backing her this fall.

According to Timothy Smyth Jr., who is on the Massachusetts Republican Central Committee, “Nikki Haley has been the best candidate that the GOP has to move our party and nation forward. She offers a new and fresh vision for the U.S.”

Percent of Chairs Committed to Candidate

For the survey’s second measure of candidate support, I asked chairs which candidates they are considering, and they can name as many as they want. DeSantis had dominated this category for most of 2023, but he’s seen a steady decline with each passing month. In this latest survey, a majority of chairs is no longer considering him, as his share fell from 56 percent to 48 percent.

Trump largely maintained his level of potential support from the last survey, with 61 percent of chairs saying they were considering his candidacy. Haley’s numbers rose in this measure, as well, jumping from 39 percent to 45 percent.

Vivek Ramaswamy’s numbers in this category jumped during the summer, peaking at 32 percent of chairs expressing openness to his candidacy in August; in recent months, his potential support has slid and now a mere 19 percent of chairs are considering him. That’s just slightly above the 16 percent who are open to Christie.

Percent of Chairs Considering Candidate

For another take on this question, I asked the county chairs whom they do not want to see become their party’s nominee.

As he has during each survey, Christie came in at the top, with 60 percent of chairs opposed to him. He was followed closely by the other most vocally anti-Trump candidate, Asa Hutchinson, at 52 percent, who only narrowly edged out Ramaswamy, at 51 percent. Ramaswamy’s negatives here shot up considerably since October, when 36 percent of chairs said they were opposed to him. His particularly belligerent approach to debating doesn’t appear to have gained him many friends, but it has won him a number of detractors.

Trump, while not facing as much resistance as he was back in the summer, still saw his negatives notch up into the 30s. Haley’s opposition held at about 30 percent, while DeSantis’ opposition remained among the lowest in the field at 17 percent of chairs set against his candidacy.

Percent of Chairs Who Do Not Want Candidate Nominated

This is my final survey of the “invisible” portion of this contest — voting in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary begins in a few weeks — and it appears the county chairs are increasingly locked into their choices.

I tried to get a sense of just how strong the chairs’ preferences were by asking them what might cause them to change their support. What was striking was how few of them thought any information would cause them to shift.

For instance, I asked if a candidate being convicted of a crime would alter their preferences; just eight of the 106 respondents said this would change their mind about their chosen candidate — and seven of those were Haley supporters. Only six said they would shift if their candidate performed poorly in Iowa or New Hampshire. None said they would change their support if their candidate was rejected by many prominent endorsers or newspapers, or if their candidate had a significant medical crisis. The majority said they would not change their support no matter what.

At this point, judging from this survey, Trump still holds a monumental lead in the Republican presidential nomination contest, and little seems likely to steer local GOP leaders away from him. It is certainly plausible that another candidate could do better than expected in the early contests and at least shake up the campaign a bit. What’s different from previous surveys is that Nikki Haley is that candidate now.

I plan to conduct one last survey in late January to see how the early contests have affected the fight for the GOP nomination. If Trump romps in Iowa and New Hampshire, it may be impossible to topple him. But if Trump falters, perhaps the county chairs and other Republicans will rally around a single opponent and make it a real race.