America’s nuclear submarine crisis on a collision course with China
Our nuclear submarine fleet is in big trouble. Production and repairs are backlogged. We can't even manufacture two per year and China is catching up. Trump team has to move fast.
Just wait until President-elect Donald J. Trump finds out the Navy’s nuclear shipbuilding is close to a death spiral. The White House just asked Congress for an emergency $7.3 billion to cover costs on nuclear attack submarines to prey on China, plus the new Columbia-class nuclear missile "boomers" that will carry 70% of the U.S. nuclear deterrent in years ahead.
Maybe Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and the DOGE are savvy enough to speed up production of nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers. Because if the Navy can’t fix this problem fast, China will pull ahead.
For combat naval technology, America’s mastery of nuclear propulsion is the crown jewel. Quiet, lethal submarines powered by small nuclear reactors give the U.S. Navy an incalculable edge in countering China in the Pacific. But since Trump left office, the rate of new production and repairs has cratered. For example, the Navy wants to build two attack submarines per year, but the yards are barely producing one. The first Columbia class is already a year and a half late. Repairs are backlogged, too.
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What happened? COVID-19 delays, supply chain problems, inflation, labor shortages, you name it.
Meanwhile, China has a new submarine reactor in development, and Russia sailed its newest K-561 Kazan submarine to Cuba for a port call back in June. Russia is also working on a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed drone called Poseidon to be launched from a submarine.
In response, the Navy is trying to ramp up "the most significant increase in nuclear-powered submarine and ship construction in over 30 years," says the Government Accountability Office.
It’s not going well. Not surprisingly, Congress is upset with the Navy for holding back information on the extent of the problem. Without intervention, "I have zero confidence that Navy shipbuilding will get back on track," Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., head of the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee said recently.
Here’s why Trump’s team must move fast.
Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, measuring 571 feet, will be longer than the height of the Washington Monument. On patrol, the "boomers" are virtually undetectable. I got to see parts of the 40-foot wide stern sections on construction rigs this fall. The hulls are massive; they have to be, since they hold 16 nuclear missiles. New ship types are always tricky, but the clock is ticking. The old Ohio-class boomers conk out at 42 years, so the first goes offline in 2027. The Navy needs at least one Columbia-class per year to keep up the nuclear deterrent in the 2030s. By then, China will have tripled its nuclear warhead count.
Virginia-class attack submarines run on nuclear reactors, too, but carry conventional weapons ranging from Tomahawk missiles to detachments of Navy SEALs. Their mission is sea control, power projection and quite frankly, snooping. Submarines use active and passive sonar, listen to radio transmissions, and map ports and the seabed.
Increasingly, they also deploy tiny underwater sensors to make sure Chinese and Russian submarine captains can’t sneeze without us knowing it. "Longer submerged endurance, extended high speed range, and capacity to operate advanced sensors make nuclear-powered submarines the apex naval predator," according to analyst Brent Sadler.
The Chinese navy is their prey. China has 370 warships versus 292 for the U.S. Navy, hundreds more in their so-called coast guard, and a dozen nuclear-powered submarines. Their six type 094 Jin-class "boomers" carry nuclear missiles with multiple warheads.
"They were built to threaten the U.S.," according to Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, adding that the U.S. will "keep close track of those submarines." Of course, their Russian friends mastered nuclear submarines decades ago – as we recall from the 1989 movie the "The Hunt for Red October," featuring CIA agent Alec Baldwin tracking down Russian sub captain Sean Connery.
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Don’t even get me started on repair and overhaul. Technically, we have 66 nuclear-powered attack submarines. But experts say only about 40 are operationally ready, while others are in for repairs.
You can see it’s past time for an intervention in nuclear shipbuilding, and Trump has the team to do it.
Fortunately, the Navy has options. First, Congress can pay up the $7.3 billion. Another option is to front-load money already approved by Congress for a block buy of submarines, and use it to raise wages and upgrade production lines. All that should speed up production while still holding the shipbuilders to their fixed-price contracts.
What it takes is guts and accountability, and a green light from the White House for action. For this is one problem that can’t be solved by mass firings. On the contrary, the shipyards and their hundreds of suppliers need to hire people – welders, fitters, electricians – and accelerate production schedules. If Trump and crew can fix this, America’s nuclear shipbuilding is poised for the biggest renaissance since the Reagan years.
This is nuclear shipbuilding after all, so safety and quality come first. Sound a little complicated? It is, but I bet Musk and Ramaswamy can figure it out. Otherwise, the western Pacific may become Xi Jinping’s lake.
