An Elon Musk-inspired pivot to Mars would be a mistake
Firming up plans to go to Mars would be fine, so long as it is not done at the expense of returning to the moon.
Elon Musk is one of the biggest winners of the 2024 presidential election, next to President-elect Donald Trump. He went all in to reelect Trump, spending millions of dollars and even personally campaigning in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania.
Musk will have an outsized influence in the coming second Trump administration, particularly regarding space policy. Ars Technica has some interesting speculation as to what that means.
One of the major effects that Musk could have on a Trump space program may be in the Artemis program. That effect may be concerning as it involves Musk’s Mars ambitions.
Hitherto, Artemis has been envisioned to send astronauts back to the moon first, then send them to Mars at some future date. However, the new plan, pushed by Musk, may be to go directly to Mars at the same time as going to the moon or perhaps even bypassing the moon entirely.
Musk has boasted that he can send uncrewed Starship rockets to Mars by 2026 with a crewed expedition in 2028. The plan is very attractive to Trump since American and allied boots on the Martian surface by the end of his presidency would be a legacy enhancer. However, the timeline Musk suggests is unrealistic. Much has to happen before Starship is a practical interplanetary spacecraft.
A crewed return to the moon by 2028, on the other hand, is entirely reasonable. While NASA still officially plans Artemis III, the first moon landing since 1972, to happen in 2026, problems with the Orion spacecraft heatshield and the time it will take to make the Starship into a viable lunar lander will likely push the date out a year or two.
Even so, the prospect of Trump making that phone call to the Artemis III crew on the lunar surface, just as President Nixon did with the crew of Apollo 11, is more likely than having astronauts on Mars during his upcoming term, Trump would also have the legacy of starting the Artemis program, just as President Kennedy did the Apollo program.
The arguments for returning to the moon sooner rather than later include the value of Earth’s nearest neighbor for science and economic development. However, a 21st-century campaign to explore and occupy the moon is also a great enhancer for America’s soft political power, something that takes on greater importance in light of China’s lunar ambitions.
The last thing Trump would want would be for China to steal a march on the United States and get back to the moon first while NASA is bogged down trying to get to Mars. That kind of legacy seems too much like losing. Trump does not like to lose. Greg Autry, a space business educator who served on the NASA agency review team and as White House liaison at NASA, has touched on the Chinese threat in his book “Red Moon Rising.”
Of course, several things can be done to hurry matters along. Regulatory reform would go a long way toward restraining the Federal Aviation Administration’s ability to gum up the schedule, for starters. Without waiting for months for regulatory approval, development of the SpaceX Starship can go pedal to the metal.
Another decision that might move things along to both the moon and Mars would be to cancel the Space Launch System, or at least phase it out as Starship and other commercial systems continue to develop and improve. The SLS is an expensive, kludgy rocket that has launched only once, during the Artemis I flight in 2022. It is not scheduled to fly again for at least a year, possibly more. The SLS is standing in the way of our expansion to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The trick will be getting Congress to agree to eliminate the rocket.
Firming up plans to go to Mars would be fine, so long as it is not done at the expense of returning to the moon. Glenn Reynolds, a law professor and blogger, suggests that we have the prospect of a future that includes “Moon flights, Moon bases, at least one new space station, and possibly orbital solar power stations and asteroid mining beginning within a decade.” Mars would follow naturally.
That future would be an American-led one rather than a Chinese one. An expansion of humanity across the solar system will provide our civilization with a sense of purpose and dynamism that would benefit future generations beyond evaluation.
Mark R. Whittington is the author of “Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?” as well as “The Moon, Mars and Beyond,” and, most recently, “Why is America Going Back to the Moon?” He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.
