Analysts reveal three scenarios with electricity supply in Ukraine in winter: rolling power outages predicted

Ukrainian energy analysts have identified three possible scenarios with power outages in winter, depending on temperature, demand and possible Russian attacks on infrastructure.

Source: an analytical report by DiXi Group, a think tank

Details: Baseline scenario: no bombardments and moderate temperature:

With no new attacks on the power grid and moderate weather conditions, the electricity shortage could reach up to 2 GW due to increased seasonal demand. The situation is further complicated by limited electricity imports, driven by high demand across Europe.

Rolling blackouts and measures to reduce consumption may be introduced to balance the power grid. If thermal generation is restored or the capacity of hydroelectric power plants is increased, the deficit could decrease. In this scenario, any potential outages would be limited to three to four hours during the evening peak.

Cold winter scenario:

Even without new attacks, a sharp drop in temperature could push the electricity deficit to 3.4 GW, and if renewable generation operates unstable, the deficit could rise to 5 GW. The maximum projected consumption may reach 18.5 GW, which would likely result in strict rolling power outages.

Worst-case scenario:

The power grid will face significant instability risks if new attacks target thermal power plants or other generation facilities. While the deficit may be smaller than during last year's frost, the grid's stability will be jeopardised. In such cases, emergency blackouts will likely be necessary to prevent overloads.

Analysts predict that there may be no electricity shortage during the night or day in sunny weather as long as there are sufficient imports. However, severe frosts (down to ten to fifteen degrees below zero) could lead to shortages even during these periods, requiring emergency assistance or additional outages to compensate.

However, 20-hour outages are unlikely.

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