Battle of the supercomputers: Whose algorithm was best at predicting Euro 2024?

In the lead-up to a sporting event it’s hard to move without coming across predictions from a so-called supercomputer, and Euro 2024 was no different.

These supercomputers use mathematical models – sometimes involving the equally ubiquitous AI – which are run thousands of times in order to forecast the most likely outcomes. 

They are all different, so they often spew out different conclusions, and that leaves them ripe for revisiting and comparing to answer the question: whose supercomputer was the best at predicting Euro 2024?

Opta

Prediction: Stats gurus Opta ran its algorithm and concluded that the most likely winners of Euro 2024, with a 19.9 per cent chance, were England. France were a close second on 19.1 per cent, with actual winners Spain ranked fourth on 9.6 per cent.

Verdict: The big dogs of number crunching failed to see Spain’s win coming before the tournament, although they were by no means alone in that respect. Opta does get some credit for rating England a 31 per cent chance to make the final, which they (just about) did.

Sportradar

Prediction: The other serious players in the stats game also forecast an England win, with France, Germany and Portugal next most likely and Spain only fifth. Sportradar also tipped Kylian Mbappe to be top scorer and picked six goals as the most likely winning mark.

Verdict: England’s progress to the final saves a bit of credibility for Sportradar, but otherwise Euro 2024 wasn’t pretty for its model. Spain beat France and Germany on their way to glory, Mbappe netted just once and only three goals were needed to claim the Golden Boot.

University of Liverpool

Prediction: Merseyside’s finest maths boffins didn’t follow the crowd with their prediction that hosts Germany would win Euro 2024. Their model made England second favourites, followed by France, Portugal and the Netherlands, who didn’t get as much love elsewhere.

Verdict: England did indeed finish as runners-up, so top marks to the Scouse soothsayers for that call. They also gave semi-finalists the Netherlands more of a chance than others, but lose marks for tipping Germany, who were eliminated in the semi-finals by Spain.

Blip Insurance

Prediction: The small business insurer’s simulation of every game at Euro 2024 identified the most likely overall winner as France. It forecast England to lose in the final, and predicted they would take seven points from their group matches.

Verdict: France were one of the disappointments of the tournament, limping to the semi-finals before losing to Spain, so that call was wide of the mark. But, again, England were indeed second and Blip also correctly tipped their draw against Slovenia. 

Conclusion

This wasn’t a good Euro 2024 for the big beasts of stats, Opta and Sportradar, who proved to be about as on-target as Cristiano Ronaldo. Perhaps the best predictions came from the University of Liverpool’s Centre for Sports Business, although Blip Insurance also deserve an honourable mention. 

Either way, if these results are anything to go by, it will still be some years before the robot uprising comes and obliterates all we hold dear, including the beautiful game.