Biden allies try to avoid a face plant in New Hampshire

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — Joe Biden left his name off the ballot in New Hampshire. He hasn’t set foot in the state since April 2022, let alone campaigned in the current primary.

But on Monday, a dozen volunteers braved single-digit wind chills anyway to wave handmade signs at cars and urge voters to write in the president’s name when they go to the polls on Tuesday.

That Biden is dependent on these volunteers to save him from potential embarrassment is a problem of his own making. At his behest, the Democratic National Committee elevated South Carolina to the No. 1 slot in the presidential nominating contest and stripped New Hampshire of its delegates after the state moved forward with its primary.

As part of that deal, the Biden campaign has ignored New Hampshire, noting the primary is unsanctioned and immaterial to the delegate count. But privately, allies fear that if he merely underperforms on Tuesday night, it would harm the president.

They are taking it very seriously. They’re worried that the voters may not be — and they also hope a strong showing might help their own bid to regain their first-in-the-nation status.

“It’s a little surprising to people to find out he’s not on the ballot. A lot of people don’t know that,” said Cinde Warmington, an executive councilor who is running for governor and showed up to wave signs at commuters on Monday. “That’s why we’ve been doing this big effort all around the state for months now.”

There has also been an emotional hurdle for some New Hampshire Democrats because “people were pissed off” and “blind-sided” about the DNC’s “dumb decision” to remove New Hampshire from its first-in-the-nation slot, said state Sen. David Watters, who is helping support Biden in the state.

A million-dollar effort is underway to combat that anger and make sure that Biden wins a write-in campaign — and wins by a respectable margin — over longshot challenges from Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson. That’s despite the fact that, initially, some New Hampshire Democratic donors were reluctant “to divert resources from critical down-ballot races to an effort that the national party or campaign should be funding,” said a Democratic operative in the state, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject.

A super PAC is pumping money into digital ads and mailers that are blanketing the state encouraging voters to write in Biden’s name. Pro-Biden surrogates, including Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, have come to New Hampshire to rally write-in supporters.

“There's this narrative that people are discontented and disaffected — and I think that's somewhat overblown — so let's go out there and show that we're standing with him,” said Peter Sullivan, a former New Hampshire state representative and a write-in Biden volunteer. “But running a write-in campaign is very strange, and we haven’t really seen something of this sort in 50 years at least.”

Virtually no Biden supporters believe Phillips will score an outright upset. But Democrats in New Hampshire are unsure of what, exactly, to expect in such an unprecedented race. There’s debate about what would even constitute a good night for Biden — if he needs to merely win or hit 60 percent to hold off concerns from within his party.

If Biden performs strongly — whatever, precisely, that looks like — some of his allies believe that will show excitement for the president just as the general election is kicking off, since former President Donald Trump is looking like he may be able to vanquish his last remaining opponent tonight. Demonstrating that energy is a critical task at a time when polls show Biden needs to win back many Black, Latino and young voters.

“It is the first primary, and so I think it's a good thing for there to be a good showing for the president in the first primary,” said Kathy Sullivan, treasurer of Granite for America, the super PAC behind the Biden write-in campaign. “If we can do that with a write-in, which is difficult to do and unusual, that goes a long way toward showing there is enthusiasm for the president.”

But other Biden allies are trying to downgrade expectations here given the unusual circumstances. A pro-Biden grassroots group wrote in a memo last week that “Joe Biden’s vote total on Jan. 23 will understate his actual support among New Hampshire Democrats and independents.” Those talking points, circulated by the organization, also note that Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski received just under 40 percent of the vote in her own write-in campaign in 2010.

A recent poll by University of New Hampshire/CNN showed that 63 percent of likely Democratic primary voters would write in Biden's name, while 10 percent would support Phillips, 9 percent would back Williamson, and 11 percent mentioned another candidate.

In 2012, then-President Barack Obama won about 81 percent of the vote in New Hampshire during his reelection with no serious opposition.

“Write-in campaigns are notoriously difficult,” said Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), who greeted “Write-In Biden” volunteers on Monday. “At the end of the day, Granite Staters know that the stakes are really, really high in this election, so I feel very good about the write-in campaign that we have.”

Granite for America has spent $1.5 million on digital ads, mail, phone-banking, texting and other costs, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Many of its digital ads skip over the primary contest to focus on the need to stop Trump’s election. Other spots have encouraged New Hampshire Democrats to write in Biden’s name by absentee ballot and alerted voters when they haven’t mailed their absentee ballots back yet.

Phillips and an outside group supporting him have dwarfed Granite for America in spending. The congressman has plowed $5 million of his own funds into the race, he said, and the pro-Phillips super PAC We Deserve Better has spent nearly $2 million so far, per FEC filings.

Biden isn’t the only one whose performance will be scrutinized on Tuesday.

Though New Hampshire was stripped of its delegates this year, Democrats in the state are hopeful that the DNC will once again bless their first-in-the-nation status in future presidential elections. They believe that a good showing for Biden would reflect well upon the state when the DNC reconsiders the nominating calendar in the years ahead.

“I think New Hampshire put it behind them to say, ‘We’ve got to do what’s right for the country,’” said Khanna, who showed up to support write-in Biden volunteers in Dover, N.H. on Sunday afternoon. It was his second recent visit to the state, but he still came in black dress shoes, despite a coating of slippery snow on the ground.

“I think people will look at this, when Joe Biden wins, and say, ‘Wow, look how seriously they took their responsibility,’ and I think that’ll help them for the future,” Khanna said.