Biden's lame-duck Ukraine request faces slim chances in Congress

Lawmakers see a slim chance of passing President Biden’s request for $24 billion in funding related to Ukraine, as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has called for any new funding to be pushed back until President-elect Trump takes office. 

Pro-Ukraine lawmakers are counting on strong bipartisan support in Congress to help push through the request alongside a stop-gap government funding bill because even some Trump allies are looking to leverage American assistance to Ukraine to force talks with Russia to negotiate an end to the war. 

“Speaker Johnson doesn’t know what he’s doing,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the incoming ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said when asked about the Republican leader’s opposition to Biden’s $24 billion Ukraine aid request. 

“There's still strong bipartisan support for it," she added, noting that Former Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) all are in favor of it.

Johnson on Wednesday rejected Biden's request, saying “we have a newly elected president, and we’re going to wait and take the new commander in chief’s direction on all that, so I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now.”  

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), the outgoing chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, said more funding related to Ukraine is “not likely” in this Congress. 

“I strongly support whatever we can do to help Ukraine. So I would certainly be supportive of an effort to provide predictable funding in [fiscal 2025], so I'm fine with that, I would just — I don't think it's likely,” he told The Hill.

Likewise, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, spoke to the increasing opposition among Trump’s Republican allies in Congress toward committing more U.S. money towards Ukraine.

“There’s growing skepticism about it from a dollar standpoint,” he told The Hill. “So, it was close the last time. It'll be, probably, even harder this time. But I can't predict what a vote would be. I don't know.”

In April, Rubio was one of 18 Senators to vote “no” on a $95 billion supplemental aid package that included aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — saying he wanted Biden to address his “demands that the president secure our border.” The supplemental passed Congress, but the majority of House Republicans voted against a stand-alone bill on aid for Ukraine. 

The White House said the April vote addressed critical security assistance through 2024, and the latest request is meant to address funds needed through 2025, with the majority of funding expected to be spent on manufacturing in the U.S.

This includes $16 billion to replenish U.S. weapons stockpiles that were sent to Ukraine and $8 billion toward new U.S. military production contracts for future weapons shipments to Ukraine. 

“This not only supports Ukraine and degrades Russian military capability but also strengthens our own military and improves our own military readiness through direct investments in the U.S. defense industrial base and modernizing our weapons,” a U.S. official told The Hill. 

“It also supports the American economy and creates American jobs.”

And top military officials are warning that more needs to be done to refill U.S. stockpiles drawn down over support for Ukraine, while also provided to Israel in its more than yearlong war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and defense against Iran and other Iranian-backed groups. 

Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of all U.S. Naval Forces in the Indo-Pacific, said last month that U.S. delivery of Patriot air defense interceptors and air-to-air missiles to Ukraine and Israel have started “eating into stocks.” 

“We should replenish those stocks and then some,” he said on a panel at the Brookings Institution. “I was already dissatisfied with the magazine depth. I'm a little more dissatisfied with the magazine depth. It's a time for straight talk.” 

But Trump is outspoken in his criticisms of U.S. money spent on helping Ukraine and promised while campaigning to end Russia’s war in Ukraine before, or shortly after taking office. 

Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick to lead negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, has said the U.S. could hold back military assistance for Kyiv to force Ukraine’s participation in any peace talks. 

The most likely path for more Ukraine aid is to be attached to a continuing resolution that Congress needs to pass by Dec. 20 to avoid a government shutdown. 

Lawmakers on both sides are confident about Congress’s chances of averting a funding lapse, but negotiators say another Biden request, funding to support nationwide disaster relief efforts, is taking center stage in spending discussions.

As for the administration’s ask for Ukraine funding, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) withheld comment in remarks earlier this week.

“I have not seen that proposal yet,” he told The Hill on Tuesday, though he added he’s “always been supportive of Ukraine.” But he also said Congress is “not going to do something like that without talking to the incoming administration.”

The U.S. has provided about $100 billion in aid for Ukraine over the course of nearly three years of war, alongside European support of about $150 billion. Asian allies, like Japan and South Korea, have also contributed aid for Ukraine, and Taiwan has provided humanitarian assistance. 

But American provisions of military support to Kyiv are viewed as indispensable in supplying Ukraine’s armed forces with the material needed to stand up against Russia’s power.

The most critical present need is air defense to block Russian attacks against Ukraine’s electrical grid, aimed at beating down Ukrainian resolve heading into winter. 

“Ukrainians are facing a very cold and likely dark winter,” said Doug Klain, non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

The Biden administration is winding down about $6 billion in funding from the April supplemental that allows for the U.S. to draw directly from American weapons stockpiles to give to the Ukrainians. 

But the Pentagon is cautious on sending over supplies without the guarantee that they can be backfilled in the near future, raising the likelihood that Trump will inherit billions of direct assistance to Ukraine that he can hold up. 

“Ukraine needs way more air defense. This has been a consistent need for the last three years but especially going into this winter,” Klain said. “The Russians, by many reports, have been stockpiling missiles and drones to try and conduct even more of these nationwide air assaults – attacking and battering Ukraine's energy infrastructure and other critical infrastructure.” 

Klain was critical of the Biden administration’s messaging about the $24 billion package, saying it did not do enough to explain that the funding replenishes U.S. stocks and invests in American manufacturing and jobs. 

“I think the way that this supplemental request was messaged, really from the beginning, has been quite misleading and made it even less likely that it would pass,” he said.