Biden’s Ukraine move tests Putin, riles Trump allies

The Biden administration is apparently calling Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s bluff by allowing Ukraine to strike far into Russian territory with U.S. weapons systems, a move that has drawn the ire of President-elect Trump’s allies. 

The lifting of a restriction on the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) will reportedly apply initially to the Russian region of Kursk, where Ukrainian forces have held territory since an August surprise, and where some 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to bolster Russian counter-attacks. 

Biden officials on Monday would not publicly confirm the new policy, but pointed to North Korea’s involvement as an escalation by Moscow. Prominent figures in Trump’s orbit suggested the move was meant to complicate the incoming president’s push to end the war. 

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump's pick for national security adviser, told Fox News on Monday that Biden's ATACMS lift is "another step up the escalation ladder."

"And nobody knows where this is going," he said. "Trump is talking grand strategy here. How do we get both sides to the table to end this war, what's the framework for the deal, and who's sitting at that table."

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” Donald Trump Jr. wrote on X Sunday, responding to reports about the policy change. 

The Kremlin on Monday accused Biden of adding “fuel to the fire” in Ukraine, and pointed to previous remarks from Putin, who warned in September that any nuclear-armed nation approving the use of such missiles in Russia would be declaring war with his country. 

“This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict,” Putin said in September. 

Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh dismissed concerns of escalation, pointing to North Korean troop deployments as already a major increase in hostilities. 

“North Korea entering this war makes them co-belligerents with Russia, and we're talking about North Korean soldiers being used to take sovereign territory, Ukraine’s sovereign territory,” she told reporters in a Monday briefing. 

John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Russia program, said lifting the restriction now will give Ukraine a better hand in eventual negotiations.

“Anything we can do to increase Ukraine’s leverage in those talks is going to be useful,” he said. “Right now Putin thinks he holds the cards because ... Ukraine has trouble stabilizing its lines and the overall war effort isn’t really on a stable trajectory. Putin thinks he can outlast Ukraine and he sees western war fatigue.”  

“All this convinces him that he can be in a position to dictate terms, so if we’re going to get to a good, lasting agreement, we need to disabuse some of that notion.” 

ATACMS are long-range missiles that can be fired from systems like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and reach targets up to 190 miles away.  They are much more accurate and lethal than the long-range drones that Ukraine has used to target deep into Russia. 

David Silbey, a military historian and professor at Cornell University, said Putin may escalate his attacks on Ukrainian cities in response, but doubted he would use a nuclear weapon. 

“If he used a nuclear weapon, he would get one back, “ Silbey said. “Even if he thinks it's not likely that the U.S. will nuke Russia over a nuclear weapon being used in Ukraine, not likely is not the same thing as absolutely not. And he doesn't want to die in a conflagration any more than previous Russian leaders.” 

Putin has threatened nuclear weapons several times since the war began in 2022, drawing red lines that Ukraine’s western backers have crossed. 

Ukraine lobbied hard for months to get the U.S. to lift a restriction on using the ATACMS to strike deep inside of Russia, but Washington refused, arguing it would have no practical effect, and that Ukraine already has long-range drones.  

Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser, did not confirm the news while speaking to reporters at the G20 summit in Brazil, but said the U.S. “has been clear” that it would respond to Russian escalation, pointing to the “significant Russian escalation that involves the deployment of a foreign country's forces on its own territory.”

Hardie of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies explained that Ukraine can use ATACMS to pressure Russia on the battlefield by striking at approaching forces, command and control centers and ammo depots. 

But he said Russia has already moved critical warplanes out of range. The Russian aircraft have been dropping devastating glide bombs on Ukraine. 

“We’ve missed the window where it’d have maximum effect. It would have been great to do this while Russia was still basing its glide bomb carriers within ATACMS range,” he said. “We've obviously missed that moment but it can still have an effect.” 

John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said the late approval of ATACMS, along with other weapons systems, has hurt Kyiv’s chances on the battlefield. 

“Now we have to do a lot more, because the Russian position is stronger,“ he said. “I take the ATACMS as a positive step. It'll make it harder for Russia to seize back Kursk, to make further progress in eastern Ukraine, but it will not solve the overall problem.” 

Republicans on Capitol Hill criticized the move as coming too late. 

“This does not excuse the administration's deliberate slow-walking of items and assistance long authorized by Congress for use against Putin's illegal aggression,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, in a statement. 

The Biden administration previously gave the first ATACMS to Ukraine in October 2023 after Kyiv had asked for it beginning in 2022. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at the new capability in a Sunday video address.

“There’s been much said in the media today that we have received approval to take relative actions,” Zelensky said. “But strikes are not carried out with words. These things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.” 

It’s unclear how many ATACMS that Ukraine has, though the U.S. authorization may also unlock long-range missiles from allies, like the U.K.’s Storm Shadow, to hit deep into Russia. 

Singh, at the Pentagon, said western long-range missiles are in “limited supply.” 

“There are only so many of these capabilities that different nations can produce there,” she said. “They are incredibly costly.” 

Matthew Savill, military sciences director at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute, said in an email analysis that ATACMS will help Ukrainian forces hold Kursk and blunt North Korean and Russian advances. But they serve a political purpose too, he wrote. 

“The Ukrainians need to convince the incoming US administration that they are still worth backing – in President Trump’s transactional view, a ‘good investment’,” Savill said.  

“It is unlikely that the Ukrainians can have a major impact in such a short period of time,” he added, “until the next administration is formally in place, and with an uncertain but probably small stockpile of ATACMS.”