Britain is unwell: Four charts explaining the UK’s long-term sick problem

The topic of sick leave was back in the headlines this week after a health adviser to the government declared that the long-term sick must be forced to look for jobs to cut welfare costs and reduce the UK’s reliance on immigration.

Former health secretary Alan Milburn, who is now advising Labour on NHS reform, said that seven in 10 economically inactive people want to work but few are required to – or have the help – to do so.

According to a report by The Times, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall has praised Milburn’s report, although stopped short of backing his plan to impose conditions on sickness benefits.

It’s not hard to see why the government is so keen to address the issue.

Aside from the obvious benefits it would bring to peoples’ quality of life, analysts estimate that reintegrating between half and three-quarters of those who have dropped out of the workforce since 2020 could generate anywhere between £35bn and £57bn for the economy over the next five years.

It could also help deliver a three per cent lift to UK GDP, worth around £177bn, by the end of the parliament, according to research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the NHS Confederation.

But, as demonstrated over the past few years, defining the problem – let alone solving it – is not an easy task.

What does the long-term sick crisis look like?

The government define an economically inactive person as someone “not in employment, who have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next two weeks”.

There’s multiple reasons people might fall into this category, including early retirement, being a student, being a carer or having a long-term medical condition.

Up until the pandemic studying was the number one reason for people being out of work, but over the past three years there’s been a shift.

Long-term sickness is now the main contributor to economic inactivity in the UK, which rose to a record 9.4m in February 2024 – that’s or 22.2 per cent of adults aged 16 to 64 years

Our inactivity rate has increased by 1.1 percentage point since the pandemic, bucking the trend among rich countries. On average, OECD countries have seen inactivity fall by one percentage point while EU countries have seen a 2.3 percentage point fall in inactivity.

And around 85 per cent of people considered economically inactive state long-term ill health as the primary reason.

The retail sector has been the hardest hit by lengthy staff absence, with 1.04 per cent of its workforce affected by a chronic health condition.

The transportation and storage and hospitality sectors have also seen high levels of employee absence due to poor health, helping to contribute to significant staff shortages.

What is making Britain sick?

ONS research from last July suggested that 53 per cent of those inactive due to long-term sickness had mental health conditions, although often as a secondary condition.

ONS data collected on a monthly basis shows that mental illness or mood-related conditions like depression and anxiety are now the primary cause of ongoing health issues – unsurprising when you consider that around one in four Brits say they’ve experienced a mental health problem of some kind in the past year.

These issues have been particularly prevalent among younger people (18-24). Young people are now more likely to experience a common mental disorder than any other age group, according to Resolution Foundation research.

Deteriorating mental health has contributed to a doubling in the number of young people out of work for health reasons in the past decade, jumping from 93,000 to 190,000.

NHS Digital Mental Health Services Monthly Statistics suggest that demand for mental health services is growing fast. Mental health services in England received a record 4.6m referrals in 2022 – up 22 per cent from 2019.  

And while it’s tricky to draw a direct link, the number of people off work with mental health issues appears to correlate with a rise in NHS waiting times, with patients in some local authorities waiting an average of 10 weeks for an initial assessment and more than 25 weeks for a second appointment.

Labour has made some big claims around better mental health support within the UK, stating that it aims to recruit 8,500 additional mental health staff in their first term of service, deliver an extra million NHS appointments a year and reduce waiting times.

The party has also indicated a desire to increase early intervention to help prevent mental health crises from spiralling.

This prevention over cure method would, in theory, help to alleviate stress from the NHS and give people early access to support services.

But will this be enough to make a dent in the problem?

“Growth is our number one mission and, as the Chancellor said, our Back to Work Plan is central to achieving our plans,” said Liz Kendall last week.

“Economic inactivity is holding Britain back – it’s bad for people, it’s bad for businesses, and it’s bad for growth.

“It’s not good enough that the UK is the only G7 country with employment not back to pre-pandemic levels. It is time for change in every corner of the country.

“We’ll create more good jobs, make work pay, transform skills, and overhaul jobcentres, alongside action to tackle the root causes of worklessness including poor physical and mental health.

“Change delivered by local areas for local people, driving growth and delivering opportunity and prosperity to everyone, wherever they live.”