Can ticket-splitting governor races survive a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024?

America’s governors have been the last bulwark against complete political polarization. That dynamic might not survive Donald Trump being on the ballot again.

The last time he was at the top of the ticket, three of the 11 states holding gubernatorial elections voted for different parties for governor and president, an enduring sign that sometimes politics actually is still all local. But in the subsequent four years, politics has continued to grow more polarized — and nationalized — leaving a smaller and smaller gap between federal elections and those that govern the states.

Now those 11 governor seats are up again, and Trump's seemingly unstoppable ascent to the Republican nomination has him at the center of the political universe once again. And President Joe Biden’s enduring unpopularity could also further polarize down-ballot contests.

In the shadow of the presidential election flooding money into states, voters will choose governors who will have dramatic impact on their lives, from policies over abortion access, Medicaid expansion, infrastructure funding and more. And governors can serve either as a powerful friend — or formidable foe — to the president in Washington.

Here are the big races to watch in 2024.

North Carolina: The biggest gubernatorial race of the year

2020 presidential results: Trump 49.9 percent, Biden 48.6 percent

2020 gubernatorial results: Roy Cooper* (D) 51.5 percent, Dan Forest (R) 47 percent

The Tar Heel State has been the home of repeated heartbreak for Democrats over the last decade. After Barack Obama narrowly carried the state in 2008, it looked like it would be the swing state of the future. Instead, Democrats lost close election after close election in North Carolina — including the next three subsequent presidential elections and tight Senate contests.

The lone bright spot has been in state government, where Democrats have had nearly uninterrupted control of the governor’s mansion for the last 30 years, save for Pat McCrory’s lone term beginning in 2013.

The 2024 election poses a serious challenge to that dominance.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited, setting up a competitive race for the open seat. Cooper’s Democratic heir apparent is state Attorney General Josh Stein, who got into the race early and scored endorsements from across the party — including Cooper and most of the congressional delegation — and has already raised millions. Former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan is also running, but most expect Stein to win the nomination.

The Republican primary also has its leader: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Robinson, one of the few Black Republicans serving in a statewide elected position anywhere in the country, is one of the most Trump-like candidates in rhetorical style out there. (Trump also supports him.) He rose from political obscurity after a 2018 video of him arguing for gun rights went viral in conservative media. Two years later, he won the lieutenant governorship.

But Robinson has also compiled one of the most controversial track records in politics. He has a laundry list of scandals — agreeing with antisemitic remarks about the global economy and homophobic musings, and being stridently anti-abortion despite his wife having an abortion decades ago, a decision he said they made together, but he now regrets. His path to the nomination isn’t totally clear — conservative businessman Bill Graham is running as well, with support from the state’s senior senator, Thom Tillis — but many others have lined up behind Robinson, who is widely seen as the party’s frontrunner.

Perhaps no statewide race will have to contend with the presidential contest as much as this one. The state was Trump’s closest margin of victory in 2020 — he won it by roughly a point-and-a-half — and both parties are expected to compete heavily for the White House there in 2024. Both races will likely be fought on similar lines — abortion, the state of democracy and the economy. But there could still be ticket-splitters out there: Cooper carried the state by 4.5 points even with Trump winning at the top of the ticket four years ago.

New Hampshire: Democrats’ chance for a Sununu-less win

2020 presidential race: Biden 52.7 percent, Trump 45.4 percent

2020 gubernatorial race: Chris Sununu* (R) 65.1 percent, Dan Feltes (D) 33.4 percent

National Democrats are eyeing the New Hampshire governor’s race as one of their best chances to flip a governor’s mansion in 2024, after the state’s popular moderate Republican governor, Chris Sununu, decided not to seek a record fifth term.

Democrats repeatedly tried and failed to unseat Sununu, the scion of a prominent political family who holds high approval ratings at home and nationally. But with Sununu stepping aside, and with Democrats closing in on retaking control of the lower legislative chamber, the party is now bullish on their prospects in this purple state that’s been trending blue at the federal level.

Two big-name Republicans are looking to stand in their way: former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate president Chuck Morse. Ayotte is angling to return to public office after being ousted by Democrat Maggie Hassan in 2016. Morse is looking for a comeback after losing last year’s U.S. Senate primary to retired brigadier general Don Bolduc, who went on to lose to Hassan.

Outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington are running for the Democratic nomination — and are dividing their party’s establishment in the process.

Ayotte and Craig hold cash advantages in their respective primaries and are considered the front-runners in their respective races.

Democrats are already hammering Ayotte over her views on abortion — she pushed for a 20-week federal ban while in the Senate but said she supports the state’s current law that generally prohibits the procedure after 24 weeks — an issue that proved a winner for the party in last year’s federal races. Ayotte, meanwhile, has been attempting to paint Craig as weak on border security and score political points by warning that New Hampshire is “one election away” from becoming its liberal neighbor to the south: Massachusetts. Both issues are red meat for New Hampshire’s Republican base.

Washington: Can a Republican really compete?

2020 presidential: Biden 58 percent, Trump 38.8 percent

2020 gubernatorial: Jay Inslee* (D) 56.6 percent, Loren Culp (R) 43.1 percent

Can Republicans actually be competitive in a state Biden carried by nearly 20 points in 2020? Dave Reichert says yes.

The former lawmaker is back on the scene after retiring from his battleground district ahead of the 2018 blue wave. Reichert believes that the situation is uniquely ripe for an upset Republican win in the otherwise blue state.

It’s an open seat race with longtime Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee retiring. Reichert has sky-high name ID in some of the most populated parts of the state, thanks to his decade-and-a-half in Congress. And his job before Congress, as sheriff who helped capture the “Green River Killer,” one of the most infamous serial killers in American history, will play well to the issues he plans to campaign on: crime, homelessness and the economy.

Standing in Reichert’s way will likely be state Attorney General Bob Ferguson. Ferguson has been preparing for a run for years — he briefly ran for governor in 2020 when Inslee was a presidential candidate before running for reelection after Inslee returned to Washington — and brings connections across the party and a significant fundraising apparatus to the race.

Democrats acknowledge that the race will be unusually competitive — but say that they’ve also heard this one before. A heavily hyped challenge to Democratic Sen. Patty Murray in the midterms ultimately petered out to double-digit loss for Republicans. And Reichert will not be the first Republican to run on crime and public safety — but since 2022, Republicans have a less-than-stellar record in competitive gubernatorial races.

They’ll go after the former member of Congress on abortion — Reichert labels himself as “pro-life” — and are relishing the opportunity to yoke him to Trump, whom he will likely share a ballot with and remains deeply unpopular in the state.

The best of the rest

Eight other states are holding gubernatorial contests next year — and every cycle, one under-the-radar race emerges to be at least nominally competitive.

In blue Delaware and red Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia, the incumbent governors are term-limited, and there will be competitive primaries to replace them. Indiana is particularly busy, with Republican Sen. Mike Braun looking to make the jump to the governor’s office.

In Utah, GOP Gov. Spencer Cox has put himself forward as the face of a kindler, gentler conservatism — and earned himself a primary challenger from a MAGA-aligned state legislator.

And three Republican incumbents still need to make up their mind on whether they'll seek another term: Vermont’s Phil Scott, Montana’s Greg Gianforte and North Dakota’s Doug Burgum.

Scott’s decision would be the most influential for which party controls the governorship. Should the uber-popular incumbent run again, he will likely skate to reelection. But if he doesn’t seek a fifth term — Vermont governors have to run every two years — Democrats could be in a good position to finally take back the seat.