Championship final-day permutations: Ipswich, Leeds, play-offs, relegation and a £290m prize

After nine months and 552 fixtures, the 2023-24 Championship season concludes on Saturday (until the play-offs, at least) – and there is still a huge amount at stake, especially for promotion hopefuls Ipswich Town and Leeds United, and the five clubs still stalked by relegation.

Leicester City may have already wrapped up the title and an immediate return to the Premier League, but the other automatic promotion spot still hangs in the balance – as do two of the places in the top six, which comes with a shot at the play-offs.

And at the other end of the table, it is still to be confirmed which two of Huddersfield Town, Birmingham City, Plymouth Argyle, Sheffield Wednesday and Blackburn Rovers will join the already-relegated Rotherham United in slipping into League One next season.

Here is how it stands and who needs what on a nervy final day (all games kick off at 12:30pm) when hundreds of millions of pounds will be on the line for some of English football’s most historic clubs.

Championship automatic promotion: Who needs what?

Ipswich are in the box seat to finish second, needing only a point at home to Huddersfield to guarantee they join Leicester in achieving promotion to the Premier League. 

They will still do it if they lose, provided Leeds don’t win at home to Southampton.

It would be a huge moment for Ipswich, who were English champions in the 1960s and European title winners in the 1980s but have fallen on hard times in the 21st century. 

Their nadir came in 2019 when they dropped into the third tier but they bounced back last season and now stand on the brink of back-to-back promotions and the end of their 22-year exile from top-flight football.

It could be financially transformative for Ipswich, too, whose revenue was £22m last season – promotion to the Premier League would be worth at least £170m and as much as £290m to Ipswich, according to Deloitte. 

Leeds have an outside chance of snatching second place but must beat Southampton, who were also in the race for automatic promotion until suffering three defeats in a row last month. 

Like Leicester, Leeds are looking to return to the Premier League at the first attempt. While still hugely lucrative, for teams who only recently came down (and are therefore in receipt of parachute payments) the financial uplift is less dramatic.

Championship play-off places: Who needs what?

Three teams – Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion and Hull City – are scrapping over the last two play-off places. Leeds – or Ipswich – and Southampton are assured of the other two.

Norwich need only a point at Birmingham to guarantee a top-six finish and can do it even if they lose, so long as Hull don’t win at Plymouth. 

A draw will almost certainly be enough for West Brom to clinch a play-off spot at home to Preston North End, barring Hull winning by a landslide. 

West Brom, too, are on a three-game losing streak, however, and should that continue it would leave the door open for Hull to squeeze them out of the play-off places on the final day.

Hull have mounted a late charge and are among the Championship’s most in-form teams. Only a win at relegation-threatened Plymouth will do for them. 

To overtake Norwich they would need the East Anglians to lose and see a seven or eight-goal swing across both of the games – for instance Hull winning 5-0 and Norwich losing 2-0. 

Any kind of Hull win can lift them above West Brom if the Baggies lose. Mathematically, they can do it if West Brom draw, but they would need an 11-goal swing.

Championship relegation: Who needs what?

Technically, there is a five-way fight to stay in the second tier, although Huddersfield’s inferior goal difference means they are all but certain to be relegated. 

Even if they can ambush Ipswich’s promotion party, they would need Plymouth to lose to Hull and see a minimum 15-goal swing across both games.

If that wasn’t enough to deter Huddersfield, then perhaps the knowledge that beating Ipswich might allow their hated local rivals Leeds to go up will also play on their minds. 

Assuming Huddersfield join Rotherham in sliding into League One, the last relegation place looks likely to be a shoot-out between Birmingham and Plymouth.

Plymouth have a one-point head start but still need a win against Hull to be certain they stay up; a draw or defeat would allow Birmingham to overtake them by beating Norwich.

Birmingham could even scrape their way to safety with a draw against Norwich, if Hull beat Plymouth by a five-goal margin. 

Sheffield Wednesday and Blackburn need a point apiece at Sunderland and Leicester respectively to guarantee their Championship survival.

Should either lose, they will be sucked into the relegation void if both Birmingham and Plymouth beat their play-off chasing opponents. 

When are the Championship play-offs?

The teams placed third to sixth go into the play-offs for a shot at the final promotion place – and that potential £290m bonanza.

A week after the dust settles on the regular Championship season, the hurly-burly of the play-offs begins with four games in the space of one frenetic week.

Two-legged semi-finals see third play sixth and fourth take on fifth, with the first legs on 12 and 13 May and the second legs on 16 and 17 May.

The victors progress to the winner-takes-all play-off final at Wembley on Sunday 26 May, dubbed the richest game in world football for the financial reward on offer.