COP28 pledges not enough to limit global warming to 1.5C, IEA warns

Pledges made at COP28 to cut fossil fuel emissions will not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, according to one of the world’s foremost energy bodies.

So far agreements have been reached to triple renewable energies and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, while 50 oil and gas companies have agreed to cut out methane emissions and eliminate routine flaring by 2030 under the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter.

But the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in an analysis published today that the commitments made so far at the climate conference “would not be nearly enough” to avoid the temperature benchmark.

According to the analysis, if everyone delivered on their commitments, it would lower global-energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 4 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030.

That is about a third of the emissions gap that needs to be closed in the next six years to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, as agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“The IEA will continue to monitor the ongoing developments at COP28 and update its assessment as needed,” it said.

In September, the energy body said that global demand for fossil fuels is “set to hit a peak in the coming years” before gradually declining as the world’s push for renewable energies slowly takes over.

The COP summits have come under routine scepticism for serving more as a talking shop than a foreground to create real progress.

Last week, Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate tsar, warned countries negotiating at COP28 not to fall into point-scoring when pledging action on climate change.

The 1.5 degrees target has also been decried as unrealistic, including during the summit by billionaire philanthropist, Bill Gates.