Could Ukraine have prevented Russia’s Kharkiv incursion? Experts weigh in

Russia’s rapid breaching of the Ukrainian border in Kharkiv Oblast has raised three questions.

1. How serious is the breakthrough?
2. Was it preventable?
3. What lessons does it offer for Ukraine’s defense?

We provide answers based on information from experts and officials.

1. How serious is Russia’s breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast?

The assault, which started on 10 May, appears to be slowing down amid heavy losses. Russia has nevertheless occupied over 100 square kilometers of land, and nearly 8,000 residents had to be evacuated from dangerous zones.

Battles are still ongoing as Russia attempts to seize Vovchansk and Lukiantsi and, according to the US-based Institute for Study of War, create a “buffer zone” on the border, a task that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian leaders have spoken about repeatedly.

There is no threat of the seizure of Kharkiv city itself, experts and officials believe: the size of the Russian contingent is insufficient for this.

However, if Russia manages to come 15 kilometers closer from the border, it would place Kharkiv in the range of barrel artillery, exposing it to strikes that would reduce at least part of city, which has already suffered daily Russian missile strikes, to rubble.

Allegedly, this video shows the first minutes of the clash between Ukrainian border guards and an enemy group on the day the Kharkiv offensive began. Timely detection of the enemy saved the lives of the defenders. No one panicked despite realising that the enemy had a numerical… pic.twitter.com/uA5bf6M9SC

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 13, 2024

Another problem the breakthrough creates is that it thins out and distracts Ukrainian defenses.

“By opening up a new front in the north of the country, Russia creates dilemmas for Ukrainian commanders and forces them to divert key units that are currently holding the front line in the east of the country,” writes military analyst Mykola Bielieskov.

2. Was Russia’s Kharkiv breakthrough preventable?

It certainly came as no surprise. Rumors of an offensive on Kharkiv had been circulating since Putin’s reelection. In response, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Syrskyi warned in late March the Russians that any offensive on Ukraine’s second-largest city would prove fatal for them, citing Ukraine’s battle experience during the Kharkiv blitzkrieg that liberated vast swaths of land in 2022.

Questions about fortifications

He also said that fortifications and barriers were being constructed, and a plan to defend the city developed.

This made many observers question the quality of those fortifications, if they did not prevent such rapid advancement of the Russian troops.

Denys Yaroslavskyi, a reconnaissance commander fighting in this area, stated that the first line of defense near Vovchansk “simply did not exist,” which is why the Russians simply “walked in” the city. Censor.net editor-in-chief Yuriy Butusov, who was at the scene, confirmed this version.

“There are no signs of any defensive structures in and around the city,” he said on 13 May. According to him, the defensive lines are located far from the border, but for some reason in the lowlands, not on the heights.

Butusov stated that while Ukraine did set up minefields, they were designed to be effective against tanks rather than infantry.

Amid the Russian offensive, Ukraine’s commander of the Kharkiv operational forces was replaced – a move that some experts interpreted as proof of inadequate preparations.

Regional authorities push back against claims of insufficient defensive construction.

The head of the Vovchansk administration said that fortifications were constructed in the frontline regions of Kharkiv Oblast, but not as densely as desired due to constant shelling.

Meanwhile, Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, told BBC that while civilian contractors attempted to build the second and third lines of defense, located 10-30 km away from the border with Russia, they came under fire.

Four civilian construction workers were killed, 15 injured, and 30 pieces of construction equipment were destroyed during these attempts.

Meanwhile, the military was responsible for building the first line of defense, in closest proximity to the border. There, they faced harsher Russian attacks than on the 2nd and 3d lines, which made constructing proper fortifications difficult.

The military also developed the fortification construction plan for the civilian engineers, who built it under the supervision of military engineers, Syniehubov said.

However, the work of the military administration has come under fire by the Mezha anti-corruption center, whose head Martyna Bohuslavets claims that contracts were concluded with shady firms “with signs of fictitiousness,” leading to swindling of state funds.

Responding to the allegation, the Kharkiv Oblast head told BBC that the administration constantly checked whether the works were carried out correctly and rescinded agreements if the contractors were unable to build the fortifications as planned and reacted to law enforcement warnings of “abuse.”

He also announced that the contractors for building fortifications would be required to report on their work to the administration.

Inability to react to threat despite having intel

OSINT analyst Tatarigami wrote, after analyzing satellite images, that the zones currently under Russian control and adjacent areas aka the “first line of defense,” actually appear to have fortifications, with the area near Vovchansk being sufficiently less fortified than the one near Lukiantsi.

There has been a controversy surrounding the situation in the northern area of Kharkiv Oblast, invaded on May 10th. One of the primary points of contention has been the alleged absence of fortifications. But is it so?

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