Cruz holds 4 point lead over Allred in Texas: Poll

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is holding onto a slim lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D) as the Texas Senate race hits its final week, according to a poll released Monday.

The survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College shows that Cruz leads with 50 percent support to 46 percent for Allred, an ex-NFL player and three-term House member. The 4-point margin mirrors the Times’ previous survey, taken less than a month ago, when Cruz led 48 to 44 percent.

Cruz has led throughout the campaign cycle, even as Democrats have tried to put the race on the map amid fears the party could lose Montana and, effectively, the majority to Republicans without flipping a GOP-held seat. 

However, Cruz is running behind former President Trump in the Lone Star State. Trump leads Vice President Harris by a 10-point margin (52 to 42 percent) in a state he carried by five percentage points over President Biden four years ago.

According to the survey, Allred is outrunning Harris with a number of constituencies. The congressman is nabbing 76 percent of Black voters and 56 percent of Hispanic voters, compared to only 71 and 50 percent for Harris. 

He is also winning nine percent of Republicans, with Harris only snagging six percent. 

Cruz has long been a GOP boogeymen to progressives, who have flooded each his opponents with big money.

Allred raised more than $30 million during the third quarter and has raked in nearly $60 million all told during his campaign. 

A recent The Hill/Emerson College survey also showed the incumbent senator with a single point advantage in the home stretch. He led the previous iteration of the survey by four percentage points.  

With only days to go, Democrats appear to have outside chances to win two GOP-held seats. On top of the Texas battle, they are attempting to pull off a shocker and defeat Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in ruby-red Nebraska. 

The Times poll on Monday also showed that Fischer holds a two-point advantage over independent Dan Osborn, who has suddenly given Democrats a chance at flipping a seat no one considered possible only months ago. Her lead is squarely within the margin of error. 

The first recent independent survey of the Nebraska race comes after the Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP outside group, dropped $3 million into the state to give Fischer a boost in the final weeks. Trump also cut an ad for her, and his 15-point lead over Harris will likely benefit Fischer.

The poll was conducted Oct. 23-26 among 1,180 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.