DAVID MARCUS: In Virginia, signs that Trump could pull off a blue state election shock
Lots of people hated Trump in 2016, but not enough liked Hillary Clinton for her to win. Four years later, Joe Biden beat Trump. On the ground here today, it feels a lot like 2016.
I met Walt and his grandson Michael at the Byers Street Bistro over wings, pizza and beer. This was in Staunton, Virginia, which I was given to understand is pronounced with a hard "A" like Stan the man.
Michael likes to talk, and he did. He let me know he had studied political science and philosophy, and I’ll hand it to him. The kid has done his reading. He’s erudite. I asked how old he was, he said 22.
"You would have loved the 90s," I told him.
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"I bet," he said.
"I knew you then, in all the coffee houses," I said, adding, "I’m glad you’re still here."
Michael could never vote for Trump. He’s a rare voter for whom January 6th is a very big deal. But, he also told me that sometimes in his social group he can’t say the nuanced things he wants to say.
I tried to push on that, but could only get so far. He doesn’t like the word "woke," but understands it. He reads Hobbes and Kant and wants a real conversation that his leftist friends and colleagues won’t always allow when it treads on progressive assumptions.
His grandfather, who has lived in Staunton for 50 years, and who has caught a fish in 45 of the 50 states so far, seems poised to vote for Harris.
But like so many people I meet, he’s not nuts about it, he doesn’t really know who she is. Interestingly, he told me he thinks that Harris did not choose Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate because, "I think he could have outshined her."
Back at the hotel, which is a lovely place opened in 1924, I met two bikers out on the front porch of old this establishment of Virginia charm and rocking chairs, smoking.
The older of the two is voting for Trump. "We all know it was better when he was president," he told me.
His younger friend is less convinced. "I don’t trust any of ‘em." And I hear that a lot. He’s not planning to vote.
As the chill slowly started to set in on this decidedly and finally fall night in the Old Dominion, two women appeared on our stage, again divided by politics.
The spritely blonde was all in for Trump, "I don’t care how you feel about him," she said, "we all want that economy back."
Her friend Dottie, is a strong Harris supporter. That's not something I run into a lot, and when I asked why, she said, without missing a beat, "She’s a woman. It's time for a woman to be president."
I hear this fairly often, even from some men, though far fewer. What is interesting is how many women, Trump voters or not, simply reject the paradigm. Even to the point of being insulted by it.
But when I hear excitement about Harris, here in Virginia, or anywhere else, it is usually a result of her identity, what a Black woman as president represents, not because they see in the vice president a uniquely qualified candidate.
This is why, even though Virginia has of late been thought of fools gold for the Republican presidential candidate, and the polls suggest an easy blue win, I’m not totally convinced.
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In Staunton, as in nearby Harrisonburg where I was several weeks ago, the excitement and intensity around Trump from his supporters dwarfs that of Harris backers.
Towards the end of our long chat, Michael asked if I thought that there are enough American voters who hate Trump to get Harris elected, even if they don’t like Harris.
I thought about it, and said no. Lots of people hated Trump in 2016, but not enough liked Hillary Clinton for her to win, enough did like Joe Biden four years later to thwart Trump. On the ground in Virginia, and elsewhere, this feels a lot more like 2016.
Pulling out of the small-town parking garage, already going to Carolina in my mind, and more literally, my car, I saw a massive sign on a lovely six story building, it reads, "Madam President." And it really says it all. Everywhere I go, the most common reason I hear why people are filling in the bubble next to Kamala’s name is that she is a woman, they are, as the saying once went, "with her."
Maybe gender alone, identity politics, can take Harris over the top, but here in Virginia, and across the nation, I have my doubts about that.
With three weeks left until Election Day, Harris is running out of time to give voters more and better reasons to put her in the White House.
