Defense expert warns against freezing Russo-Ukrainian war without weakening Moscow

Ukrainian defense expert Mykola Bielieskov warns that accepting a ceasefire without depleting Russia’s offensive capabilities would lead to Ukraine’s gradual destruction, according to his Facebook post.

Bielieskov, a research fellow with the National Institute for Strategic Studies and senior analyst at the Come Back Alive Foundation, argues that Ukraine currently lacks a real choice between continuing the fight and entering negotiations.

The expert states that proponents of a quick conflict freeze without weakening Russia’s offensive potential “simply propose a drawn-out destruction of Ukraine.” He explains that without proper security guarantees, “Muscowy (Russia, – Ed.) will do everything possible to deter people, capital, and technology from Ukraine to irreversibly transform our country into a failed state while preparing for a new military strike that could prove fatal.“

Bielieskov says, Ukraine should continue resisting, despite worsening conditions, aiming to “exhaust the enemy’s offensive potential” before allies lose interest in supporting Ukraine. He emphasized this path is “better than agreeing to a prolonged agony without reliable security guarantees.”

Moreover, Bielieskov argued that if Ukraine continues resisting, partners will be compelled to assist. However, accepting an unfavorable political framework without guarantees of long-term security could lead partners to “wash their hands” under the pretext that “a framework exists, so why should we help?”

Bielieskov later added on X that Russia only complies with agreements it either considers within its interests or those supported by persistent hard power. He noted that any lasting framework between Ukraine and Russia must be underpinned by credible military capabilities of Ukraine and its partners, as their interests are “diametrically opposed.”

“Putin’s demands for ‘long standing peace with [Ukraine]’ in essence mean [Ukraine] being at [Russian] mercy with no sovereign [military] capability, no meaningful [military] aid out of Western countries, NATO membership prospects denied permanently. Thus, [Ukraine] being totally vulnerable to next round of [Russian] aggression,” he wrote on X.

There can be no ceasefire without clear and comprehensible security guarantees for Ukraine, Zelenskyy says

Bielieskov comment comes in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech at a press conference in Brussels on 19 December, where the leader reinforced this position, stating that Ukraine “cannot live with a frozen conflict.”

“When it comes to a ceasefire in any conflict, in any war, people know what will happen afterwards, how it will end. We need to know what will happen tomorrow to take steps toward a ceasefire today,” Zelenskyy said, according to the presidential website.

The President emphasized that Ukraine should be in a strong position, which requires several key elements, including security guarantees, clear partner support, a stable front line, and fulfilled agreements on equipping and training Ukrainian brigades.

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