Democrats, GOP locked in tight Senate races in Florida, Ohio and Texas: Poll

Democratic and Republican candidates are locked in tight races for Senate in Florida, Texas and Ohio, three states that have yielded increasingly close polls in recent weeks, according to a new survey. 

The Marist poll released Thursday showed slight leads for the incumbents in each state but within the margin of error, and two of the three were nearly tied. 

The poll found Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) with the largest lead, ahead of Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent. Meanwhile, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) led Democratic former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent, and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led Republican Bernie Moreno also by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent. 

Texas and Florida have been Democrats’ two main targets in an otherwise difficult Senate map that presents the GOP with several more pickup opportunities in November. Ohio has long been seen as one of the most hotly contested races likely to determine which party wins control of the Senate, and while Brown has mostly maintained a lead over the months, Moreno has gained ground in the polls recently. 

In Texas, Cruz, a two-term incumbent, and Allred are about even with net favorability, though Cruz has a significant advantage in name recognition. Cruz is viewed positively and negatively by 46 percent each, while Allred is viewed positively by 39 percent and negatively by 36 percent, but a quarter of respondents said they have not heard of Allred or are unsure how they view him. 

Allred does have an advantage among independents by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent. 

Scott, who is seeking his second term in the Senate to represent Florida, similarly has the edge in name identification but trails in net favorability. Only 11 percent have not heard of or are unsure how to rate Scott, while 40 percent said the same about Mucarsel-Powell. 

But Scott’s net favorability rating is minus 1 point, while Mucarsel-Powell's is 14 points. 

A key part of the lead for Brown, who is running for a fourth term, comes from a lead among independents in Ohio. He leads Moreno with them by 11 points, 54 percent to 43 percent. Brown’s net favorability is just above water at 1 point, while Moreno’s is 7 points under. 

Brown’s supporters may also be slightly more motivated behind him, with 78 percent saying they strongly support their candidate compared to 72 percent for Moreno. 

Meanwhile, former President Trump has single-digit but somewhat larger leads in each of these states over Vice President Harris. He leads in Texas by 7 points, Florida by 4 points and Ohio by 6 points. 

Trump is viewed as likely to win these states in the election. 

The poll was conducted from Oct. 3 to 7 among 1,186 likely voters in Texas, 1,257 likely voters in Florida and 1,327 likely voters in Ohio. The margin of error was 3.6 points in Texas, 3.6 points in Florida and 3.2 points in Ohio.