Dems make early ad reservations in key Senate races

The Senate TV ad wars are beginning.

Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group focused on Senate races, is placing its first ad buys for the fall ad campaign in two key states.

These initial reservations, the first of many to be made in the coming months, include $27 million in Montana and $36 million in Nevada, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. The ads will begin airing later this summer to aid the reelections of Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.).

Democrats are facing a brutal Senate map in 2024. The retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) means that Republicans could win Senate control just by capturing the White House. If they lose the presidency, they will need just one more Senate seat.

Montana and Nevada are two states crucial to defending Democrats' narrow Senate majority. Senate Majority PAC is placing reservations early in markets where TV ad space will disappear quickly, locking in both air time and lower rates.

Las Vegas, a market that will host competitive House, Senate and presidential races, will soon surge in pricing. There will not be a contested presidential race in Montana, but the state has several smaller media markets that could fill up quickly with Senate and House ads.

Senate Majority PAC is the first of the four major Senate outside groups to book ads for the general election. But the other three, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Mitch McConnell, will each spend millions eventually.

“Democrats are in a strong position to hold our Senate majority with incumbent Senators who have always put their constituents first and Republican opponents who are wildly out of touch with voters,” said JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC. “With more state reservations to come, these initial ad buys in Montana and Nevada build on our strong momentum kicking off the new year and help put us in a position to win.”

Democratic candidates and incumbents are also facing tough races in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that will also determine the presidential race. Arizona, another presidential battleground, could be the site of a three-way Senate battle, should Independent Kyrsten Sinema choose to seek reelection.

The Montana Senate race has drawn a slew of ad spending already. Tester has aired TV ads, as has Republican Tim Sheehy. Two super PACs, one aligned with NRSC Chair Steve Daines and another with Senate Majority PAC, are also on air in the race.

Tester raised a whopping $5.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Sheehy raised $2.5 million, including a $450,000 personal contribution.

Nevada hosted the closest Senate race of the cycle in 2022 when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto beat Republican Adam Laxalt by less than 1 point. In that contest, Senate Majority PAC reserved more than $30 million to boost Cortez Masto.

In 2024, there is a contested GOP primary to face Rosen. The NRSC prefers Sam Brown, an Army veteran.