Election 2024: When will the next Budget be?
City A.M.’s guide to when the next Budget is likely to come and what it might look like.
Among the pressing duties of a new government, the King’s speech, appointing a cabinet, the first Budget looms large.
An incoming Prime Minister and Chancellor must work together to create a convincing plan for taxpayers and businesses, tackling the cost of living while encouraging growth and investment.
There is no set date for the first Budget of the new government and its timing will be subject to a number of other political procedures, as well as events on the global stage – which are to come this autumn.
Here’s City A.M.’s guide to when the next Budget is likely to come and what it might look like.
What happens before a government’s first Budget
After Friday morning’s election results, a few weeks of parliamentary procedures will follow which will see the new government be officially created.
First, the new parliament will be summoned to meet on July 9, when a speaker of the House of Commons will be chosen, and all 650 MPs will be sworn into office.
This will take place over the course of a few days, with MPs taking their oaths in order of seniority, descending from the speaker, to the longest-serving MP, to the Prime Minister, to the cabinet and shadow cabinet, and so on.
Next on the new Prime Minister’s schedule will be the July 9 NATO summit, where they will meet with leaders including US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington DC.
On July 17, the official state opening of parliament will take place with the King’s Speech. In it, the government will set out its priorities for government, and no parliamentary business can occur until it has taken place.
Were Labour to win the election, as is widely forecast, their King’s Speech would include its workers’ rights plan, legislation providing for GB Energy, and a new crime and policing bill, according to the FT.
Following this, the Prime Minister will convene again with international leaders at a meeting of the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace.
Parliament will then break for the parliamentary recess, which, according to the FT, Keir Starmer is likely to shorten so that it only covers most of August, rather than running from late July as per tradition.
When is the Budget like to be delivered?
Having formed parliament and met with international leaders, the Prime Minister and Chancellor will then be able to unveil their Budget.
Rachel Reeves, who is likely to become Chancellor, has committed to a schedule of one autumn Budget every year. She has also promised to consult the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on every Budget.
The OBR is an independent body which provides analysis of public finances of every budget, and which requires ten weeks’ notice to produce a forecast.
Governments can choose not to consult the OBR, as Liz Truss did with 2022’s ‘mini budget’, but Rachel Reeves has pledged to commission an OBR review for every budget.
This ten-week notice means that the earliest possible date for a budget would be 13 September. This date, however, falls during party conference season, so some have speculated that the budget is likely to come in October.
It is unlikely that a Labour budget would come later than October, given Reeves’ pledge of an annual autumn budget.
What will be in the next Budget?
If Labour win the General Election, their first Budget won’t include any unwelcome surprises, they’ve insisted.
Having ruled out hiking income tax, national insurance, and corporation tax, Reeves has promised that her budget won’t introduce any new “black holes” that require extra funding.
Sir Keir Starmer has echoed this, saying that there would be “no fiscal surprises” beyond Labour’s election campaign.
The party’s fundraising measures, then, are likely to be restricted to a windfall tax on oil and gas, the introduction of VAT to private schools, an increase on stamp duty for non-UK residents, and a further tightening of the non-dom tax “loophole”.
The funds raised here will go towards public services spending such as a £125m dentistry package, free breakfast clubs for primary schools, and over 3,000 new nurseries.
The windfall tax in particular will fund Labour’s “Green Prosperity Plan,” which will introduce Great British Energy, a publicly-owned green energy supplier, a warm homes plan, and a £1.5bn national wealth fund.
If the Tories are to overturn polling predictions and snatch a win later this week, their first budget will include tax cuts, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has promised.
The Conservative manifesto also promises to invest £8.3bn in potholes and road surfacing, cut “outdated” EU red tape on house building, and increase spending on business research and development.
