EU rates Ukraine's chances of accession talks as 20-30%

European officials are assuming that the chances of Ukraine getting the green light for EU membership negotiations are low, given that Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, intends to block the EU leaders’ decision.

Source: an article by European Pravda on the eve of the EU summit

Details: "There is a 20-30% chance of success," an official told journalists covering the EU leaders’ meeting on Wednesday.

Considering recent statements Orbán has made, even this assessment seems optimistic, the article says. 

However, the EU is not publicly acknowledging the possibility that the summit may be a "complete failure" in the context of decisions on Ukraine.

Firstly, the EU summit is almost certain to adopt the decision regarding financial aid for Ukraine. The only question is whether this decision will be made with the participation of Hungary, i.e. as a summit decision.

If Orbán vetoes that as well, the other 26 states are ready to provide financial aid for Ukraine, bypassing Budapest. Unfortunately, that won’t be possible with the accession negotiations.

Secondly, even a veto on opening negotiations could come in various forms. Even now, there is an option that would allow Hungary to save face and give Ukraine the green light with a slight delay - at an extraordinary summit in January or February, for instance, which the leaders could announce now.

Or any other scenario which would leave Ukraine with a realistic hope that the start of accession talks will be postponed for months, not years.

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