Ex-Obama adviser warns ‘it’s very possible’ Trump would win election if held today, says reporters too cocky

Former senior Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer said Thursday that polling and data experts — far more than most reporters — believe that the campaign fight between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is extremely close. 

"If you polled the press corps and most Democrats who are not working for the Harris-Walz campaign, 85 percent would say that Kamala Harris would win if the election were held today," Pfeiffer said in an interview published Thursday with Puck News' John Heilemann. 

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race in the final months before election day, according to multiple national polls. A recent CNN poll found Harris holding slight leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a lead in Arizona. Meanwhile, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania were toss-ups.

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"If you ask the people who are actually deep in the numbers and paying really close attention to what’s happening in the battleground states, it’s closer to 50-50," Pfeiffer said. "And I think it’s very possible that if the election were held today, Trump would win." 

When asked to explain the confidence disparity, Pfeiffer said that all the battleground states, but especially Pennsylvania, are making the race between Trump and Harris difficult to call. 

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"When you dig into the battleground state poll numbers, they’re all toss-ups, every single one of them," Pfeiffer said. "There’s not a single battleground state poll where one of the candidates is up or down by more than two points, and most of them are tied, or at one point." 

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"And when you start doing the math of what happens if one of the candidates does not win Pennsylvania, it all gets very complicated, very quickly," he said. 

Pfeiffer said that there was "no number" in the polls that would give him confidence that Harris was on track to win the battleground states. 

The Harris campaign directed Fox News Digital to previous comments that Harris campaign chair, Jen O'Malley Dillon, made regarding the race. 

"However, make no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs," Dillon said in a memo released on Sunday. "Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020."