Expert says stalled Kursk advance comes at high cost, Ukraine may need new strategy
With 30% of reclaimed territory lost and heavy tolls in personnel and equipment, former Ukraine's Security Service officer questions the operation's sustainability.
The Kursk operation was successful until early September when the Armed Forces of Ukraine expanded their controlled territory, but now they are “stuck,” former Ukraine’s Security Service officer Ivan Stupak told Suspilne.
Ukraine’s operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast launched on 6 August 2024, aimed to counter Russian aggression and disrupt planned offensives. Ukrainian forces advanced up to 35 kilometers into Russian territory, capturing hundreds of soldiers and reportedly inflicting over 20,000 casualties on Russian forces. The operation was a response to intelligence suggesting Russia planned to create a “buffer zone” in northern Ukraine. However, despite initial successes, the Ukrainian advance has recently stalled due to strengthened Russian defenses and reinforcements in the area.
“The operation was indeed successful when we expanded our area of influence in that region. At its peak, it covered 900 square kilometers. As of now, it’s 611 square kilometers, according to DeepState analysts, but in reality, we don’t know the exact area. We’ve lost about 30% of the territory we previously controlled there. The cost of this operation is very high,” Stupak noted.
He emphasized that Ukraine is suffering losses in both personnel and equipment.
“Western analysts estimate — and these figures can be questioned — that over the three months of this operation, Ukraine lost around 300 pieces of various equipment, including pickups, buggies, heavy equipment, and more. That’s approximately 100 units lost each month,” Stupak commented.
He believes the initial phase of the operation was very successful, as it disrupted the Kremlin’s plans, expanded Ukraine’s exchange pool, and demonstrated to the world the weakness of Russia’s defense.
“However, now we’ve stalled, we’re stuck, and I don’t see a military solution to this operation going forward. Timing is crucial. When our troops entered, they were at their peak, and we had maximized all the possible advantages,” believes the analyst.
He pointed out that while Ukraine holds Kursk Oblast, it is also losing eastern cities, including the Pokrovsk, which had a pre-war population of 100,000. For comparison, Sudzha in Kursk had a pre-war population of 5,000.
According to Stupak, Ukrainian forces in the south and east report experiencing shortages of ammunition and heavy equipment, as tops priority for Ukrainian command is Kursk, and equipment and weapons are directed there.
In his opinion, it would now be more appropriate for the Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Kursk Oblast.
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