Experts urge Trump to ramp up pressure on Putin before any peace talks
FP analysts urge the US President-elect to weaken Russia's position by ramping up military aid to Ukraine, targeting Russian economics, and reinforcing NATO.
Analysts Mark Montgomery and John Hardie, writing for Foreign Policy, argue that US President-elect Donald Trump should implement a “maximum pressure” strategy upon taking office next month to challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence in achieving his aims in Ukraine. This would be key to ensuring any future peace talks with Russia are based on fair terms and do not result in Ukrainian capitulation. The experts stress the urgency of this approach, especially given the growing expectations for a negotiated end to the war.
The analysts note Ukraine’s deteriorating military situation, with manpower and equipment shortages, slow mobilization, and rising casualties. Despite Russia’s own challenges, its forces continue advancing incrementally, intensifying missile and drone strikes, which damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, straining the economy amid winter.
The West’s growing interest in peace negotiations incentivizes Putin to make maximalist demands. Last week, Putin reiterated his maximalist demands for a peace deal: Ukraine must cede more territory to Russia, abandon its NATO aspirations, demilitarize, and “denazify,” which the Kremlin views as a justification for replacing Ukraine’s government. These demands, the authors suggest, indicate that Putin is confident the war is moving in his favor.
“If US President-elect Donald Trump is to succeed in brokering a peace deal, he must change Putin’s perspective that he has the upper hand, or Trump’s diplomacy will backfire,” the article reads.
The analysts note that any diplomatic effort must address some harsh realities, as Putin’s ambitions go beyond seizing Ukrainian territory: he has long sought to keep Ukraine in Russia’s sphere and reshape Europe’s security order.
“No matter how the current war ends, those ambitions will persist as long as Putin remains in power—and likely well afterward, given Russia’s entrenched imperial traditions,” the authors say.
The article suggests that Trump should act swiftly, “without the torturous delays and self-imposed red lines” that have characterized Biden’s support for Ukraine.
US action needed
The FP article authors urge Trump to take immediate steps to strengthen both Ukraine’s military position and Western leverage. This includes increasing US military aid by tapping into Biden-era drawdown authority, which allows the US to donate weapons from its existing stockpiles, and utilizing funds under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative to procure new equipment. They also suggest the US lobby Congress to pass a major Ukraine assistance package, modeled on the Lend-Lease Act of World War II.
The analysts also emphasize the need to target Russia’s economic vulnerabilities, particularly its energy exports, which are vital to its war effort. They recommend that the US apply secondary sanctions to prevent Russia from circumventing the G7 oil price cap, which limits the price of Russian oil. Russia has been able to evade the cap by using a “shadow fleet” of tankers that are not subject to Western services. Expanding sanctions on this fleet could significantly impact Russia’s ability to fund its military operations. Additionally, Montgomery and Hardie argue that the G7 should lower the price cap on Russian oil exports to further strain Russia’s economy.
In terms of military support, the experts advise the US to increase its provision of weapons to Ukraine, particularly longer-range missiles such as Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) and ATACMS, which would allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory. The US should also lift remaining restrictions on where Ukraine can strike, particularly against Russian air defense systems and energy infrastructure. These measures, they argue, would help Ukraine regain the initiative and pressure Russia into negotiating a peace deal on more favorable terms.
Related:
- WP: Trump must avoid appeasement trap in Ukraine-Russia peace talks if he wants to end war
- Atlantic Council: Putin is obsessed with Ukraine’s destruction, isn’t interested in peace deal, says expert
- ISW: Putin uninterested in negotiated peace, wants Ukraine’s capitulation
- Biden’s new $725 million Ukraine military aid package focuses on air defense, artillery
- NATO chief warns Trump: forced Ukraine peace deal could embolden China, Iran, and North Korea
- “Trump has tools to really hurt Putin,” says US Republican professor
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