Fox News Poll: Trump leads Biden in Georgia, receiving just over 50% support

Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden with just over 50% support in Georgia, a state Biden won by less than 1 point in 2020.

That’s according to a Fox News survey of Georgia registered voters released Thursday.

Just over half of Peach State voters, 51%, say they would support Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head rematch, while 43% say they’d go for Biden. That puts Trump ahead by 8 points, outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

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Eight in 10 Georgians (78%) say they are extremely or very interested in the race and the vote breakdown among this subgroup is similar: 52% would go for Trump and 43% Biden.

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Trump receives strong support from his base, including White evangelicals (85%), conservatives (76%), White voters without a college degree (74%) and rural voters (67%). For Biden, it’s liberals (87%), Black voters (71%), voters with a college degree (52%) and suburban women (52%).

Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to support their respective candidates (91% each) while independents go for Trump by 20 points (51%-31%). It also helps Trump that more Republicans (83%) than Democrats (78%) are interested in the election. 

Biden is taking a hit with younger voters as those under age 35 go for Trump by 7 points.

A majority says Biden was legitimately elected in 2020 (60%), yet over 2 in 10 (22%) of that subgroup would vote for Trump in 2024. About a third (32%) believe Biden’s victory was suspect, and they overwhelmingly go for the former president (97% Trump).

"Given that the Democrats won major U.S. Senate races in 2020 and 2022, Trump’s strength in this poll is somewhat surprising," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "We can blather on (correctly) about how ‘anything can happen,’ but the reality is Biden may want to shift his focus and precious resources away from Georgia and onto other potential battleground states, such as North Carolina."

In a potential five-way race, Trump still leads the pack, but both the former president and current incumbent lose support to third-party candidates: Trump gets 45%, while Biden drops to 37% support. Other candidates receive a total of 12% support: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (8%), Cornel West (3%) and Jill Stein (1%).

The survey tested another hypothetical five-way race, which substitutes Nikki Haley for Trump. In this case, third-party candidates help Biden and hurt Haley. Biden comes out on top by 6 points with 35% support among Georgians, followed by Haley at 29%, Kennedy at 18%, West at 3% and Stein at 1%.

Where do Trump supporters go in this scenario? Just 46% would back Haley, while 31% would vote third-party, 6% wouldn’t cast a ballot at all and 13% are undecided. Haley gets over 50% support among registered Republicans (52%), but nowhere near the 83% Trump garners in his five-way race.

Independents splinter when it comes to Haley — 20% back her, while 22% would go for Biden and a larger share, 30%, for Kennedy. By comparison, Trump receives 34% support among independent Georgia voters vs. 21% for Biden and 17% for Kennedy. 

The economy is the top issue nationally, and it’s no different in Georgia as 44% feel they are falling behind financially (43% say they’re holding steady and 12% say they are getting ahead).

When asked the most important issue in deciding their vote this November, 62% say the economy is extremely important, followed by election integrity (53%), health care (51%) and immigration/border security (46%). Abortion comes in at 40%, while all other issues fall under 30%: the Israel-Hamas war (28%), climate change (27%) and the Ukraine-Russia war (23%).

Trump comes out on top on most issues. More Georgia voters trust Trump than Biden to handle immigration/border security (+21 Trump better to handle), the economy (+18), Israel-Hamas (+15) and Ukraine-Russia (+11). Voters are split on health care (+2 Trump), election integrity (+1 Trump) and abortion (even). The only issue where Biden comes out on top is climate change (+5 Biden).

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"The coalition that gave Biden a slim victory in 2020 is in need of reassembly and that may be harder to do this time," says Anderson. "On the crucial issues of the border and the economy, Georgia voters think Trump is significantly better — Biden will need to make inroads on these issues to win Georgia again."

Another topic surrounding the presidential candidates is their mental acuity and more voters are extremely or very concerned about Biden’s mental soundness (65% concerned) than they are Trump’s (51%).

Biden’s job ratings are on par with his national ratings, which are underwater: 41% approve vs. 58% disapprove in Georgia.

Georgia voters are ready for change — a lot of it. Nearly 8 in 10 want either a lot (50%) or radical (29%) change in how the country is run, while 2 in 10 say a little (17%) or no change (3%) is necessary.

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Trump wins among those who want at least a lot of change, while Biden wins among the remainder. 

Conducted Jan. 26-30 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,119 Georgia registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (200) and cellphones (649) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (270). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. When necessary, weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the registered voter population.