FP analysis suggests Ukraine could pursue nuclear arms if denied NATO membership

With the reelection of Donald Trump, Ukraine’s government is now forced to consider pursuing its own nuclear weapons program as an alternative to declining American support, according to a new analysis by Foreign Policy.

This represents a reversal of Ukraine’s decision to give up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security exchange for security assurances from Russia, the US, and the UK.

The article, written by Casey Michel, head of the Human Rights Foundation’s Combating Kleptocracy Program, argues that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hinted that Kyiv may seek to develop nuclear weapons if it fails to gain NATO membership.

“Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance,” Zelenskyy said last month. “Apart from NATO, today we do not know any effective alliances.”

Michel notes that this is not the first time Ukraine has considered reviving its nuclear program. In the aftermath of the Soviet collapse in 1991, Ukraine emerged as one of a few nations to claim a portion of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. However, the US and Russia led a joint effort to strip Ukraine of these weapons, which was completed in 1994 through the Budapest Memorandum.

“The resulting Budapest Memorandum pledged nebulous ‘security assurances’ for Kyiv, with the Kremlin declaring it would never push any ‘threat or use of force’ against Ukraine,” the article states. “In return, Kyiv gave up its remaining nuclear arsenal—a move that is now not only seen by many Ukrainians as a clear misstep but that left a lingering distaste in the mouth of Ukrainian officials about America’s role in the region and even trustworthiness as a partner.”

According to the analysis, the reelection of Trump is a significant factor in Ukraine’s potential nuclear calculus. With the expectation of diminished US support under a second Trump presidency, Kyiv may see developing its own nuclear deterrent as the only way to guarantee its survival.

“If NATO keeps closing the door to Ukrainian membership—and to the US nuclear umbrella—then a nuclearized Kyiv would be the only logical outcome remaining,” the article argues.

The piece also notes that Ukraine has the technical capabilities to develop nuclear weapons. Additionally, it suggests that other nations, such as Poland, have previously threatened to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs if not granted NATO membership.

The article concludes by stating that the “West must welcome Ukraine into NATO—or it must start getting ready for Ukraine to rejoin the same nuclear club it was once a part of all those years ago.”

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