French Left’s surprise win likely to maintain strong support for Ukraine

Despite initial concerns, France's unexpected election results are expected to bolster rather than diminish support for Ukraine. The victorious left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, has given control of foreign policy to its moderate factions, who are committed to continuing France's pro-Ukraine stance.

Jul 12, 2024 - 18:58

French Left’s surprise win likely to maintain strong support for Ukraine

France election Ukraine

In the heart of Paris, the “Place de la République” was buzzing on Sunday evening.

A crowd gathered in a shared euphoria, chanting slogans such as “Youth despises the National Rally” and “Bardella, we despise you” in unison. The atmosphere was electric as people came together to express their happiness.

It is 8:15 PM, and the results of the surprise elections called by Emmanuel Macron following the European elections on 9 June have just been announced.

In a surprise turn of events, the left-wing alliance known as the New Popular Front won the most seats (182). After a highly tense and short election campaign called by a weakened President Macron, the New Popular Front brings together several left-wing parties, such as the Greens, the Socialist Party, and France Unbowed.

France elections demonstrations — People gather at the “Place de la République” in Paris. Because of its name and the symbolism associated with it, it’s one of the most popular places for demonstrations in France. / © Théo Prouvost

France’s far-right National Rally was widely expected to win this snap election, but instead they were beaten into third place (143 seats). The National Rally (RN), which has close ties with Russia, won the first round of this election, and all the opinion polls since then predicted victory in the run-off round.

Instead, France now faces a hung parliament with no party having a majority. The National Rally (RN) leader Jordan Bardella blamed “unnatural political alliances” for stopping their rise to power.

“Clear-sightedness” on Putin and Ukraine

What does this mean for Ukraine?

As François Heisbourg, special advisor at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and special advisor to the president of the Foundation for Strategic Research, told Euromaidan Press, “everything is on hold for now.” Although the situation is still uncertain and mired in political turmoil, it is good news for Ukraine.

During an appearance on one of the most popular French talk shows Quotidien on 8 July, Alain Duhamel, a political journalist and member of the Académie des sciences morales et politiques, explained the negotiations within the New Popular Front.

He stated that, “during the discussions, the more radical faction like France Unbowed conceded control of foreign policy to the more moderate factions, like the Socialist Party or the Greens, who are pro-Ukraine.”

In return, “the moderates agreed to support the domestic economic policies of France Unbowed,” he added. As a result, Alain Duhamel suggested that the current French position on Ukraine will be one of active support. “Current French policy on aid to Ukraine will be that of an active ally,” he said.

This development has significant implications for French foreign policy and the country’s relationship with Ukraine, as well as for the broader balance of power within the New Popular Front. “The international line embodied by Emmanuel Macron would be supported by the New Popular Front,” Alain Duhamel said.

Dylan Boutiflat, National Secretary of the Socialist Party for International Relations, confirmed this information. “There’s clear-sightedness about the need to have a clear line on Putin and the support for Ukraine now,” he continued.

There has been some controversy and France Unbowed has taken a slightly pro-Russian stance out of anti-Americanism, but in terms of international relations, the pro-Ukrainian positions dominate.

“The positions were ours [The Socialist Party]. In the lightning negotiations of the creation of the New Popular Front, the Socialist Party took the lead on international issues,” Dylan Boutiflat asserted. “There has been a rebalancing and a shift in the balance of power in favor of the moderates over the radicals on international issues,” he explains.

Indeed, Raphaël Glucksmann, candidate for the Socialist Party, achieved the best score of the left-wing parties in the European elections, with 14.2% of the votes cast.)

Therefore, The New Popular Front’s official position on Ukraine, confirmed by the National Secretary for International Relations, is as follows:

“The urgent need for peace, the fact that Putin is answering for these crimes before the International Court of Justice, we unequivocally reaffirm our unwavering support for the sovereignty and freedom of the Ukrainian people, particularly with regard to the integrity of its borders, we must also be able to take steps to deliver the necessary weapons to the Ukrainian resistance, the seizure of the assets of the oligarchs contributing to the Russian war effort, and the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces. “ New Popular Front’s position on Ukraine

“France Unbowed has made a lot of concessions; the support for the Ukrainian resistance is written in black and white in the electoral agreement,” Dylan Boutiflat told Euromaidan Press.

So according to Yannick Pincé, a doctor in contemporary history and researcher at the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Issues (CIENS) of ENS/PSL, “Reactions to the war in Ukraine were placed in the continuum of what had been defined as a ‘consensus’ on defense policy.”

Yannick Pincé added that in the current political situation, “everyone expects the President to retreat and even accentuate his ‘reserved domain’ in defense and foreign policy,” meaning that he will continue to support Ukraine strongly.

There is even talk by the French Government of a “stronger French commitment to the Ukraine,” Yannick Pincé assured. This is in addition to recent announcements of increased support, such as authorizing strikes in Russia with French weapons and, very recently, supplying Mirage 2000s.

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