General Election 2024: Rishi Sunak rolls the dice on a hot summer

Why did Rishi Sunak decide to call an election now? It’s a combination of good economic news, avoiding more small boats and an NHS crisis and running out of options, says Jessica Frank-Keyes

Well here we are. Some three Tory prime ministers, multiple lockdowns and almost five years since the last general election and Rishi Sunak, somehow, still managed to take SW1 by surprise.

The election is now – officially – on. Forget the wintry cold and darkened doorsteps of 2019; despite the sodden suit at the lectern outside No10, this will be smack bang in the middle of British summer time.

And much like the weather, the polls are suggesting it could be just as much of a damp squib for the Conservative Party. Why then, you might be wondering, did the Prime Minister opt to go now?

Inflation has just fallen to within touching distance of that longed-for two per cent target; while an interest rate cut looks still tantalising just beyond reach.

Flights to Rwanda, Sunak told us a few weeks ago, are expected to start in June; while the date – July 4 – comes ahead of the majority of the summer months, and may mean the government avoids the bulk of the season’s small boat crossings.

Similarly he dodges a further winter NHS crisis, and preempts the perhaps inevitable summer exam results crisis.

A hopeful beam of light, it is not. But it seems the Prime Minister and his closest advisors have decided this chink of good(ish) fortune is just that bit too well-timed to pass up.

Coming well into the final miles of this parliamentary marathon, it’s no longer really fair to cast this as either a snap election – or much of a surprise to any of the opposition parties.

Labour have been practically demanding one for months; with Starmer pre-emptively launching his party’s ‘not-quite-a-campaign’ last week. But the road ahead, for both parties, could yet prove treacherous.

The former lawyer needs, well, a massive swing from the public to cement victory – while Sunak would need to mount a comeback for the ages to hold on to office.

However you slice it, the next few weeks are set to be quite a ride…