George Galloway’s Rochdale return will be loud but short

George Galloway’s return to Westminster after the seismic Rochdale by-election will no doubt be noisy and disruptive – but it will also be short, and isolated.

The left-wing MP [I shudder that I have to say that once again] won in Rochdale due to a peculiar set of circumstances that are not likely to be replicated elsewhere. 

After his victory in Rochdale, Galloway delivered a victory speech which echoed his previous win in Bradford a decade ago, another toxic campaign, which he dubbed the “Bradford Spring”. It wasn’t long before he was out of Westminster again.

This time, he claimed “that the plates have shifted”, after his victory in Rochdale.

“This is going to spark a movement, a landslide, a shifting of the tectonic plates in scores of parliamentary constituencies”.

The problem is, George. It likely won’t. Here is why:

George Galloway ran a split campaign in Rochdale. As Harry Cole showed on X, he sent leaflets to “voters of the Muslim faith”, directly appealing to their religion, and campaigning on the issue of Gaza.

And then he sent a second set of leaflets to other voters in Rochdale, which didn’t mention Gaza. It did however mention phrases like George “believes in Britain”, that he wants to focus on “family, law and order”, and that he has “no difficulty in defining what a woman is,” not to mention that he would “fight for small business”.

The letter finishes in true Trumpian style, saying ‘make Rochdale great again’.

It’s no surprise George is appealing to voters in this way, given Rochdale is in the top 30 most deprived areas of the country. 

This has been a Jekyll and Hyde campaign from a highly cynical man – in a split constituency.  This is not going to be able to be replicated across the country.

Not every constituency is like Rochdale, and thankfully, there is only one George Galloway.

Why else did George win? Well, he is a fantastic orator, and he clearly galvanised a local campaign to an extent. 

But, he was massively helped by the vacuum left by Labour’s candidate Azhar Ali, who was dropped after being found to have made antisemitic comments.

Given the debacle over Rochdale, one would think Labour are not going to allow this mistake to happen again. Candidates will be vetted much more closely. 

Starmer will of course take stock from this Rochdale victory, and a small part of him might worry that it could be repeated elsewhere. 

But he should also take comfort from the fact that Rochdale presented a unique, and indeed unprecedented set of circumstances, where the party had to stand down its own candidate. 

There is also the very simple fact, that since the war in Gaza, Labour has won all but one of the by-elections that have taken place, in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth, Wellingborough and Kingswood. Under Starmer, Labour has won six other by-elections in this Parliament. 

Following Lee Anderson’s suspension over his Islamophobic remarks made towards Sadiq Khan, the Tories’ majority has been almost cut in half, down to 46 – from 80 at the last election.

A major reason behind the by-election victories for Starmer has not been a flurry of Galloway-esque left-wing candidates – but Reform – which in Rochdale got just 434 votes less than Labour. 

In a number of the previous by-elections, the Tory and Reform votes combined would have defeated Labour, while in other cases it would have come close.

Nobody knows if they’ll get an MP, but they could certainly eat into the Tory vote, and in some areas, like the so-called ‘red wall’, others too.

And that is case-in-point: Split tickets don’t win seats. 

Most voters who want to vote against this deeply unpopular Conservative government, now around 20 points behind in the polls, only have one real option as an alternative, likely either Labour or the Lib Dems.

Labour is well ahead in the polls, and in his back pocket, Starmer knows that a General Election is coming soon.  

This will be a short period in office for George Galloway, who will have to re-fight the seat, assuming he will stand again when Rishi Sunak calls an election. 

Given the Rochdale debacle over Ali, it is likely they will pick someone a bit more sensible whenever that election takes place, such as Huff Post political guru, Rochdale-born Paul Waugh, who narrowly missed out on selection last time.

The UK political system does not offer a lot of support to outsider parties and disruptors, like Reform, UKIP, the Brexit Party, and whatever Party George Galloway says he is the figurehead for at this current moment.

The plates have not shifted. There will be no political landslide, earthquake or changing of the seasons.

This latest Galloway stint in Parliament will be noisy, but short, hopefully.