Harris widens lead over Trump to 4 points in national poll

Vice President Harris regained her 4-point lead over former President Trump in a new national survey from ABC News and Ipsos.

Harris leads Trump by 4 points among likely voters nationally, 51 percent to 47 percent, in the survey conducted Oct. 18-22 and released Sunday. Among registered voters, Harris has a narrower lead, 49 percent to 47 percent.

Harris led Trump among likely voters by 4 points early in August, 49 percent to Trump’s 45 percent. She widened her lead to 5 points in the two subsequent surveys — in late August and mid-September — with 51 percent support, compared to Trump’s 46 percent.

Her advantage among likely voters narrowed in the most recent survey, however, when she led Trump by 2 points: 50 percent to 48 percent.

Harris leads Trump by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, among independent voters — a group Biden won by 13 points in 2020, according to ABC News’s exit polls from the election.

Among women who are likely voters, Harris has a 14-point advantage over Trump, 56 percent to 42 percent. Among men who are likely voters, Trump leads by 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent.

Harris leads Trump by 83 points among Black likely voters, 90 percent to 7 percent; she leads Trump by 30 points among Hispanic likely voters, 64 percent to 34 percent; and Trump leads Harris by 11 points among white voters, 54 percent to 43 percent.

A white voter's education level appears to be a significant predictor of their candidate preference: Trump leads Harris by 11 points among non-college graduates, while Harris leads by 22 points among college graduates.

White men without college degrees favor Trump by 41 points, and white women without degrees favor Trump by 26 points.

Harris has a slight 4-point advantage among white men who have college degrees, and a more significant 23-point advantage among white women with college degrees.

Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the national polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ; Harris leads Trump by 0.5 percentage points, 48.5 percent to 48 percent.

The survey was conducted Oct. 18-22 with 2,808 adults, including 2,392 registered voters and 1,913 likely voters. The margin of error overall and for registered voters is 2 percentage points; for likely voters, the margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.