Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 222042 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 95NE 70SE 70SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 65SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN=

Oct 22, 2024 - 22:00

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 222042
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 95NE  70SE  70SW  95NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  75SE  65SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN=