Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240231 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 After rapidly intensifying throughout the day, Kristy's impressive strengthening trend appears to have paused. The very powerful major hurricane remains quite compact and symmetric with a ring of intense deep convection surrounding its tiny eye. The initial wind speed is held at 135 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates that range between 125 and 140 kt. However, it is possible that Kristy is a little stronger as the maximum wind speed of compact hurricanes are sometimes underestimated. There are also signs that Kristy could be beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which is common in strong hurricanes in near ideal environmental conditions. Kristy continues to move swiftly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a strong ridge centered near Baja California. A turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. A sharper turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected Friday night and continuing through the weekend when the hurricane moves in the flow between the ridge and a large-scale trough. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. The major hurricane is expected to remain in generally conducive environmental conditions for about another day, so the intensity changes will be largely governed by internal dynamics during that time. However, steady to rapid weakening should begin by early Friday when Kristy moves into an environment of progressively stronger shear, cooler waters, and notably drier air. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 117.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 15.5N 124.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.9N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 18.7N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.5N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 21.7N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240231 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 After rapidly intensifying throughout the day, Kristy's impressive strengthening trend appears to have paused. The very powerful major hurricane remains quite compact and symmetric with a ring of intense deep convection surrounding its tiny eye. The initial wind speed is held at 135 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates that range between 125 and 140 kt. However, it is possible that Kristy is a little stronger as the maximum wind speed of compact hurricanes are sometimes underestimated. There are also signs that Kristy could be beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which is common in strong hurricanes in near ideal environmental conditions. Kristy continues to move swiftly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a strong ridge centered near Baja California. A turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. A sharper turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected Friday night and continuing through the weekend when the hurricane moves in the flow between the ridge and a large-scale trough. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. The major hurricane is expected to remain in generally conducive environmental conditions for about another day, so the intensity changes will be largely governed by internal dynamics during that time. However, steady to rapid weakening should begin by early Friday when Kristy moves into an environment of progressively stronger shear, cooler waters, and notably drier air. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 117.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 15.5N 124.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.9N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 18.7N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.5N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 21.7N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
