Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241432 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific. Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids. Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur, which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term. Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening, and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241432 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific. Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids. Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur, which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term. Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening, and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams
