Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250236 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy remains a very powerful hurricane. A ring of intense deep convection is relatively symmetric around the eye. However, the eye itself has lost some definition during the past few hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from about 130 kt to 140 kt, and based on that data, and the slightly degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 135 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from several hours ago indicated that Kristy was a little larger than previously estimated, but still smaller than average. The major hurricane continues to move westward at about 12 kt to the south of a ridge near Baja California. A gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest is forecast on Friday and over the weekend as Kristy moves around the ridge. The system is also expected to slow down as a trough approaches from the west, causing the steering currents to weaken. The models have trended a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Kristy will likely maintain its strength overnight as it remains in an environment of low wind shear, relatively high moisture, and over warm 28 degree C waters. However, a combination of much stronger southeasterly wind shear and progressively cooler waters should promote rapid weakening beginning Friday night. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance, but in fair agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Kristy is expected to become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 122.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 124.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Moore
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250236 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy remains a very powerful hurricane. A ring of intense deep convection is relatively symmetric around the eye. However, the eye itself has lost some definition during the past few hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from about 130 kt to 140 kt, and based on that data, and the slightly degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 135 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from several hours ago indicated that Kristy was a little larger than previously estimated, but still smaller than average. The major hurricane continues to move westward at about 12 kt to the south of a ridge near Baja California. A gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest is forecast on Friday and over the weekend as Kristy moves around the ridge. The system is also expected to slow down as a trough approaches from the west, causing the steering currents to weaken. The models have trended a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Kristy will likely maintain its strength overnight as it remains in an environment of low wind shear, relatively high moisture, and over warm 28 degree C waters. However, a combination of much stronger southeasterly wind shear and progressively cooler waters should promote rapid weakening beginning Friday night. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance, but in fair agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Kristy is expected to become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 122.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 124.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Moore
