Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251438 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Southerly to southwesterly wind shear is starting to take its toll on Kristy as the system is losing organization. The eye has become cloud filled during the last several hours, with the convective pattern becoming more asymmetric. Deep convection continues to wrap within the eyewall, although a recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicts the inner core is starting to erode. Objective and subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing steadily this morning and range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest with an estimated motion of 300/12 kt. The system will move more northwestward to north-northwestward for the next few days, steered along the southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low, Kristy's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is very near the previous one with a slight nudge northward, towards the corrected and simple consensus track aids. The environment along the forecast path of Kristy is only becoming increasingly hostile. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to rise, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of the atmosphere. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depicts that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 60 h, and dissipating into a trough by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these model trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251438 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Southerly to southwesterly wind shear is starting to take its toll on Kristy as the system is losing organization. The eye has become cloud filled during the last several hours, with the convective pattern becoming more asymmetric. Deep convection continues to wrap within the eyewall, although a recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicts the inner core is starting to erode. Objective and subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing steadily this morning and range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest with an estimated motion of 300/12 kt. The system will move more northwestward to north-northwestward for the next few days, steered along the southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low, Kristy's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is very near the previous one with a slight nudge northward, towards the corrected and simple consensus track aids. The environment along the forecast path of Kristy is only becoming increasingly hostile. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to rise, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of the atmosphere. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depicts that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 60 h, and dissipating into a trough by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these model trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
