Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
