Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222053 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out, revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at 18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at 65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane. Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution of the synoptic pattern. As such, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track thereafter. The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After 60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective organization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222053 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out, revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at 18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at 65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane. Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution of the synoptic pattern. As such, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track thereafter. The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After 60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective organization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin
