Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092056 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 105 kt. Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic. Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the new NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula. 3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 092056 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 105 kt. Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic. Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the new NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula. 3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
