Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100249 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90 kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in an hour at St. Petersburg. Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or 060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days. The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic, dissipating after 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday morning. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100249 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90 kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in an hour at St. Petersburg. Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or 060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days. The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic, dissipating after 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday morning. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
