Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 19A

000
WTNT34 KNHC 092355
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
 
...MILTON CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 82.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening 
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in 
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please 
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, 
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions 
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for 
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other 
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 82.8 West.  Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn 
toward the east on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Milton will make landfall just south of the Tampa Bay region 
within the next hour or two, and then move across the central part 
of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of 
Florida on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is likely 
until landfall, and Milton is expected to remain a hurricane 
while it moves across central Florida through Thursday.  The system 
is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become 
extratropical by Thursday night.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 
96 mph (154 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton 
International Airport. A C-MAN Station in Venice, Florida recently 
reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) with a gust to 90 
mph (145 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 954 mb (28.17 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft
Tampa Bay...6-9 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.  This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane 
warning area and will spread east-northeastward across the Florida 
peninsula overnight.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the 
hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are 
forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast 
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the 
warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
 
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong
tornadoes, are likely this evening and tonight across parts of
central Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch