Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 823 WTNT21 KNHC 191757 CCA TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 CORRECTED WIND GUST VALUES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 70.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

Oct 19, 2024 - 16:00

Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024


823 
WTNT21 KNHC 191757 CCA
TCMAT1
 
HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

CORRECTED WIND GUST VALUES

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  70.6W AT 19/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......  5NE   0SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  70.6W AT 19/1800Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  70.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   0SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   0SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   0SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  70.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI