Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 191754 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 22(34) 5(39) X(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 10(31) X(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 9 36(45) 2(47) X(47) 4(51) 4(55) X(55) MAYAGUANA 50 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GRAND TURK 64 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 8(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 191754
PWSAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10)
ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 22(34) 5(39) X(39)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 10(31) X(31)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 9 36(45) 2(47) X(47) 4(51) 4(55) X(55)
MAYAGUANA 50 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16)
MAYAGUANA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GRAND TURK 64 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 8(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
