Incumbents Lawler, Ryan lead challengers in key New York House races

Two New York House incumbents, one from each party, lead their respective challengers in key races that will help determine which party wins control of the House next month, a poll released Thursday found. 

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showed Rep. Mike Lawler (R) leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) in the race for New York’s 17th Congressional District by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. 

Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan (N.Y.) leads Republican Alison Esposito in New York’s 18th Congressional District by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent; 7 percent are undecided in both races. 

The two contests are pickup opportunities that Democrats and Republicans are eyeing as they hope to win control of the House for the next two years. Republicans hold a narrow majority of just a few seats, leaving little margin for losing votes.

The results mark improvements for both incumbents compared to earlier this month; in the earlier poll, Lawler led by just 1 point, and Ryan was up by 5 points. 

The incumbents have an advantage in favorability with voters; 52 percent in each district have a favorable view of Lawler and Ryan. Jones’s favorability rating is 44 percent, while Esposito’s is 41 percent.

While Vice President Harris is expected to carry New York as a whole comfortably, the race between her and former President Trump is tight in both of the key districts: Harris leads by 3 percentage points in the 17th, while Trump is ahead by 1 point in the 18th. 

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted in a release that a notable gender gap was observed especially in the Lawler-Jones race. The Republican leads among men by 27 points, while Jones leads among women by 16 points. 

Men are about evenly divided between Ryan and Esposito, but Ryan leads among women by 20 points.

The polls were conducted Oct. 24-26 among 475 likely voters in the 17th District and 450 likely voters in the 18th. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points in the 17th District and 4.6 percentage points in the 18th.