Intelligence cutoff and Russian drone warfare push thousands of Ukrainian defenders to brink of encirclement in Kursk Oblast
Ukraine's ambitious incursion into Russian territory, once seen as a strategic masterstroke, now teeters on collapse as Russian forces exploit intelligence gaps and overwhelming drone capabilities to divide Ukrainian positions.
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast are nearly encircled by Russian forces, dealing a significant blow to Ukraine’s plans to use its presence there as leverage against the Kremlin in negotiations, as per Reuters.
The battle for control over the Kursk front has reached a critical juncture as Russian forces intensify their offensive operations, significantly limiting Ukraine’s strategic options, military analysts report. Russian troops have advanced further into the region, making key territorial gains while leveraging overwhelming drone warfare to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and supply chains.
The situation in Kursk Oblast has sharply deteriorated over the past three days, as maps show, after Russian forces regained territory as part of a planned counteroffensive that has nearly split Ukrainian troops in two, cutting off the main group from key supply lines.
The dangerous situation for Ukraine arose after the US suspended intelligence sharing with Kyiv. This increases the likelihood that Ukrainian forces may be forced to retreat back to Ukraine or risk being captured or killed.
“The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad,” said Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.
He explained that there is very little time left before Ukrainian troops would either be encircled or forced to retreat, and it would mean crossing a dangerous zone where troops would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery.
The expert added that if Ukrainian troops cannot quickly restore the situation, this could mark the moment when the Kursk salient begins to shrink completely and turn into a cauldron.
“Plan B was needed yesterday.” Is Ukraine on the brink of withdrawing from Kursk?
In 2024, Ukrainian forces began an incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, with the operation still ongoing. They captured around 1,250 square kilometers of territory, ruining myths of Russian borders’ invincibility. In response, Russia launched a “counter-terrorist operation,” deploying additional troops and air support to repel the incursion. Russia also resorted to using North Korean troops for assistance, with North Korea sending approximately 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers to Kursk Oblast in November 2024.
Read more:
- Ukrainian soldiers saw the drone—and then did nothing. A Russian missile did the rest
- Frontline Report: Ukrainian raids unravel months of Russian gains in Toretsk
- Frontline report: Ukraine’s Vampire hexacopter drones cut “the head off Russian snake” in Kursk strike
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