Investors brace for Tesla’s earnings after Robotaxi flop

Tesla is set to post its third quarter earnings on Wednesday, with most analysts bracing for a slight dip in earnings per share compared to last year.

The consensus forecast for revenue sits around $25.34bn (£19.5bn), up from the $23.35bn (£17.96bn) it booked in the same quarter of 2023.

In its most recent quarter, Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) giant, which has a $687bn (£529bn) market cap, reported revenue of $25.5bn (£19.63bn), a 2.3 per cent increase on the previous year.

Tesla has already revealed it delivered 462,890 vehicles in the three months to 30 September, a 6.4 per cent increase from the previous quarter.

However, this figure slightly missed Wall Street’s predictions of 463,900 and fell south of the 466,000 units delivered in the same period last year.

“Markets already know delivery numbers for the quarter were good, with what looks like decent Chinese demand and a push on financing deals helping to deliver a return to growth,” said senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, Matt Britzman.

“It’s unknown how big of an impact those incentives will have on auto margins, but some ongoing softness is expected here,” he added.

Tesla has been battling shrinking profit margins and a weakened near-term outlook due to falling EV prices and rising competition, particularly from key Asian markets. The stock has still managed to climb nearly 70 per cent from its late-April low, though as insurance deals, zero-interest loans, subsidies in China and free charging have helped it gain speed.

It comes on the heels of Tesla’s Robotaxi event, where the automaker showcased its vision for a self-driving “Cybercab” at Warner Bros Studios. But the light-on-detail event that offered little clarity around the economics and scalability of the fleet underwhelmed investors, sending Tesla shares down nearly nine per cent.

Given this, “investors will be eager to hear any commentary on both the more affordable model and a refreshed model Y,” added Britzman. “The irony is that the closer Tesla gets to launching these products, the less likely there will be any chatter about them to avoid buyers delaying purchases.”

Tesla’s broader outlook for deliveries and earnings continue to face pressure, with both metrics falling short of the company’s multi-year target of 50 per cent annual revenue growth. 

Limited charging infrastructure in many countries and declining EV resale values may also be deterring potential buyers.