Iran's weakened position could lead it to pursue nuclear weapon, Biden national security adviser warns

The White House is concerned that Iran’s weakened position will prompt the regime to pursue a nuclear weapon, and national security adviser Jake Sullivan is coordinating with the Trump team on this concern. 

Iran has suffered a year of setbacks amid Israeli assaults on its proxy forces and a pull-out from Syria amid the takeover by Sunni Muslim forces, hostile to Iran's Shiite government. 

Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Iran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN on Sunday. 

"What I found over the last four years is that when good things happen, like Iran being weaker than it was before, there are frequently bad things lurking around the corner," Sullivan said.

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"If you’re Iran right now and you’re looking around at the fact that your conventional capability has been reduced, your proxies have been reduced, your main client state has been eliminated, Assad has fallen, it’s no wonder there are voices saying: ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now,'" the outgoing national security official said. 

"They’re saying it publicly, in fact. They’re saying: Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine. A doctrine that has said: We’ll have a civilian nuclear program and certain capabilities, but we’re not going for a nuke," he added. "It’s a risk we’re trying to be vigilant about now."

While Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has expanded uranium enrichment since the last Trump administration to 60% purity, a short step away from the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon. 

Last week the United Kingdom, Germany and France publicly called on Iran to "reverse its nuclear escalation," arguing there is no "credible civilian justification" to stockpile 60% uranium.

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Sullivan said there was a risk Iran would abandon its promise not to build nuclear weapons.

"It's a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It's a risk that I'm personally briefing the incoming team on," Sullivan said, adding that he was consulting with Israel too. 

Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, could bring back his "maximum pressure" policy to cripple Iran’s oil financing.

Sullivan held out hope Trump could come in and use Iran’s weakened position to get them to agree to a new nuclear deal. 

"Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran's nuclear ambitions for the long term," he said.

Trump's team is currently weighing its options to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, including preventive airstrikes.