Islamic State responsible for terrorist attack in Moscow Oblast – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group was responsible for the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow Oblast.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian authorities claimed to have detained four perpetrators and seven others involved in the 22 March terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue, which Russian authorities say has claimed at least 133 civilian lives.

Russian sources have also circulated footage of Russian security forces interrogating individuals who either speak Russian poorly or communicate through interpreters.

Russian sources generally claimed that all the detainees were Tajik nationals. Furthermore, Irina Volk, spokesperson for the Russian Interior Ministry, said none of the individuals claimed by Russian authorities to have carried out the attack were Russian citizens.

ISW believes Islamic State is most likely responsible for the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 March:  

• Russian authorities claimed to have arrested the four attackers and seven others involved in the 22 March "Crocus City Hall" concert venue attack, which Russian authorities reported killed at least 133 civilians.
• ISW assesses that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack.
• The Kremlin nevertheless and without evidence quickly attempted to tie Ukrainian actors to the Crocus City Hall attack but has yet to formally accuse Ukraine of involvement in the attack.
• Russian ultranationalists responded to the attack by reiterating typically xenophobic calls for anti-migrant policies, reflecting the growing tension in Russian society over the mistreatment of migrants and the impacts migrant disenfranchisement could have on expanding a viable recruitment base in Russia for Salafi-Jihadi groups.
• Russian sources accused Ukrainian actors of reportedly conducting a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Samara Oblast on the night of 22 to 23 March.
• Russia is reportedly delaying the delivery of two S-400 air defence systems to India, likely due to limitations in Russia’s production of S-400 systems, an increased need for air defence systems to protect cities and strategic enterprises in Russia from Ukrainian drone strikes, and a reported souring of Russian relations with India.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on 23 March that will release individuals from criminal liability if they are called up for mobilisation or sign military service contracts.

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