ISW analyses statements on risks posed by potential Ukrainian strikes on Russia

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that even a few successful long-range strikes by Ukraine could significantly alter the course of the war. They have also noted that the Kremlin had been carrying out secret operations against Western nations well before discussions about Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to target Russia began.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian authorities appear to be expending a significant amount of effort to influence the Western debate about allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to conduct long-range strikes against military facilities in Russia. 

This Russian effort suggests a deep concern with the operational pressures that such strikes into Russia would generate on Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, although US officials remain hesitant to permit Ukraine to conduct such strikes."

Details: The New York Times (NYT), with reference to its sources, said that US intelligence reports have been downplaying the potential impact that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory could have if carried out using long-range missile systems provided by the US, the UK and France. This downplaying is linked to the limited supply of such weapons in Ukraine and the uncertainty around the future delivery of additional long-range systems.

The NYT noted that officials within the US military and the Biden administration, who are advocating for a change in policy, suggested that the Western-supplied weapons would enable Ukraine to hit more distant Russian military bases and ammunition depots. This would compel Russian forces to shift their ammunition depots, command posts, combat helicopters, and other key equipment out of the range of these Western missiles, which, as officials stated, would severely disrupt Russia's supply chains into Ukraine.

Quote: "Russian authorities are likely concerned about how moving ammunition depots and other critical storage facilities further away from the frontline and outside the range of Western-provided systems will impact Russian offensive capabilities in Ukraine and appear to be engaged in a significant rhetorical effort to prevent the West from allowing Ukraine to conduct another similarly significant strike campaign."

Details: Over the past few weeks, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has reinvigorated some of the Kremlin's most potent narratives within both Western and Russian public discourse. He has tailored his usual rhetoric to fit the current discussions in the West regarding the authorisation for Ukraine to carry out long-range attacks on Russia with the aid of weapons supplied by Western nations.

Quote: "The benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range strike systems against Russia may outweigh the risk of Russian retaliation more than Western policymakers are currently considering."

More details: The NYT reported that the assessment suggests Russia may retaliate with increased force against the US and its allies, possibly employing covert operations aimed at American and European strategic facilities and military bases in Europe. This could occur if the West allows Ukraine to use the systems provided to launch strikes on targets in Russia.

Quote: "The Kremlin has been conducting covert operations against Western powers since long before the ongoing debate about Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike Russia and the Kremlin may intend to intensify these operations regardless of the West's decision as these operations support other Kremlin objectives to destabilise European countries and undermine NATO's military readiness."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 September:

• Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanised assault on the Kupiansk front on 26 September – the first large Russian mechanised assault along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since the winter of 2024.
• Russian forces may be intensifying their efforts to reach the Oskil River, although Russian advances on the east (left) bank of the Oskil River will likely continue to be relatively gradual.
• The Russian military command has demonstrated that it will likely accept continued gradual gains along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, however.
• Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces likely has limited capacity to maintain an intensified offensive effort along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line or conduct effective combat operations that result in more rapid gains.
• Russian authorities appear to be expending a significant amount of effort to influence the Western debate about allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to conduct long-range strikes against military facilities in Russia. This Russian effort suggests a deep concern with the operational pressures that such strikes into Russia would generate on Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, although US officials remain hesitant to permit Ukraine to conduct such strikes.
• The benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range strike systems against Russia may outweigh the risk of Russian retaliation more than Western policymakers are currently considering.
• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov met with Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers on 27 September, likely as part of the ongoing Kremlin effort to coopt Russian milbloggers and downplay recent backlash in the ultranationalist information space over the death of two prominent drone operators.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) announced a new initiative to draw international support for its alternative peace plan for Ukraine amid increasing cooperation with Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continued to meet with US officials about the war in Ukraine during his visit to the US on 26-27 September.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast, but neither side made further advances.
• Russian forces recently advanced within and around Toretsk and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian authorities continue to threaten Russian frontline soldiers' ad-hoc communications networks.

Support UP or become our patron!