ISW: Belarus remains unlikely to invade Ukraine
Belarus has amassed forces along its border with Ukraine, prompting warnings from Kyiv, but analysts believe a full-scale invasion remains unlikely.
Ukraine issued a warning to Belarus following a reported buildup of Belarusian forces along the Ukrainian border in Belarus’ Gomel Oblast.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 26 August, citing Ukrainian intelligence services, that Belarus amassed forces in Gomel Oblast, including “special operations forces, weapons, military equipment, and fighters from the former Wagner Group.”
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported that these forces were deployed “under the pretext of a military exercise” and expressed concern about their proximity to the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
In response, the MFA “urged Belarus to withdraw its troops from the border and warned that any violation of the Ukrainian state border would prompt Ukraine to take necessary defensive measures in accordance with international law.”
However, the ISW assesses that “Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to constraints facing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.”
The report cites an analysis by Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organizations suggesting that “Belarusian combat units typically operate at only 30 to 40 percent of their total end strength and rely on mobilization to staff units.”
The ISW argues that a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine would degrade Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s ability to defend his regime and be “very unpopular domestically.”
With Belarusian presidential elections approaching in February 2025, “Lukashenko likely desires to retain control over public sentiment, as well as access to his military to crack down on any protests surrounding the elections, as he did in late 2020,” the ISW reports.
The current buildup is likely intended to “divert and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider frontline,” the ISW suggests. Ukraine’s State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko supports this assessment, stating on 26 August that “the current number of Russian forces in Belarus is insufficient for a significant coordinated invasion of Ukraine from the Gomel Oblast border.”
The ISW concludes that Belarus may be “conducting such activity to fix Ukraine’s limited forces near Ukraine’s international border with Belarus in support of a Russian campaign design that seeks to stretch Ukrainian forces thin throughout the theater.”
Read also:
- ISW: Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian rear crucial for degrading Russia’s capabilities
- Kyiv demands Belarus pull back troops from the border, warns of retaliation if border violated
- Belarus, China agree to strengthen cooperation in trade and security
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