ISW: Kremlin preparing Russians for decade-long war in Ukraine
Russian state media is interpreting comments by a top official to suggest Ukraine will cease to exist by 2034, according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 July that Russian state media outlets are framing comments by a top official to suggest Ukraine will cease to exist by 2034, likely as part of efforts to ready the Russian public for a protracted conflict while assuring eventual victory.
According to the ISW, Russian media editorialized remarks made by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, in a 17 July interview. While Medvedev did not explicitly state Ukraine would no longer exist by 2034, he implied it when discussing NATO membership, saying “it is quite possible that the notorious country 404 will not exist either.” ISW noted that Russian “derogative use of the 404 computer ‘error’ code meant to suggest that Ukraine is not a real state.”
The ISW notes that Russian news outlets, including state newswire TASS, quickly published headlines such as “Medvedev Admitted that Ukraine Will No Longer Exist in 2034” and “Medvedev Predicted the Disappearance of Ukraine by 2034.”
The ISW argues that this framing serves multiple purposes. It “sets careful information conditions and societal expectations for a war that will last another decade, but one that will end with Russia’s desired ‘victory,'” the report states. Additionally, it “undermines select Kremlin officials’ separate attempts to suggest that Russia is willing to ‘negotiate’ for ‘peace’ with Ukraine.”
The ISW contends this narrative emphasizes that “the Kremlin’s only desired end-state for the war is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and people.”
The report references previous assessments of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated war aims, including demands that Ukrainian forces withdraw from territory not under Russian control as a precondition for negotiations.
“Neither Ukraine nor the West can expect to negotiate with Russia on Russia’s terms if Russia’s terms are premised on the eradication of Ukraine and its people in the next ten years,” the ISW concludes.
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